Monday, November 28, 2022

In cooperation with


Monday, 28 November 2022
Opening and welcome
Ernest Gnan, Secretary General, SUERF
Session 1 - Inflation forecasting: learning from errors, what if there is a regime change?
Chair: Juha Kilponen, Bank of Finland

The usefulness of inflation indicators depending on the inflation regime

Benoit Mojon, Bank for International Settlements (BIS) presentation

The bias of the ECB inflation projections: a state dependent analysis

Pirkka Jalasjoki, Bank of Finland presentation

Co-authors: Eleonora Granziera, Norges Bank, Maritta Paloviita, Bank of Finland

Session 2 - Inflation perceptions/expectations: role for inflation modeling and forecasting
Chair: Matthieu Daracq-Pariès, European Central Bank

New avenues to incorporate inflation expectations into forecasting models - state of work at the ECB

Marta Bańbura, European Central Bank presentation

Whose Inflation Expectations Best Predict Inflation?

Randal J Verbrugge and Saeed Zaman, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland presentation

Is Trend Inflation at Risk of Becoming Unanchored? The Role of Inflation Expectations

Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Federal Reserve Board presentation

Co-author: Francesca Loria and David López-Salido, Federal Reserve Board

Virtual Break
Session 3 - Inflation forecasting: new avenues for improvement
Chair: Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d’Italia

Forecasting UK inflation bottom up

Andreas Joseph, Bank of England

Co-authors: Galina Potjagailo and Chiranjit Chakraborty (Bank of England), George Kapetanios and Eleni Kalamara (King’s College)

Forecasting US Inflation using Bayesian Nonparametric Models

Massimiliano Marcellino, Bocconi University

Co-authors: Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Florian Huber, University of Salzburg and Gary Koop, University of Strathclyde

The demand and supply of information about inflation

Dalibor Stevanovic, Université du Québec à Montréal, CIRANO

Co-author: Massimiliano Marcellino, Bocconi University

Session 4 – Inflation dynamics and large supply shocks
Chair: Deniz Igan, Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and SUERF

Inflation Expectations and the Supply Chain

Emiliano Luttini, Central Bank of Chile
Co-authors: Elías Albagli, Central Bank of Chile, Francesco Grigoli, IMF

Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation

Muhammed A Yildirim, The Growth Lab, Harvard University

Co-authors: Julian Di Giovanni (Federal Reserve Bank of New York), Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan and Alvaro Silva (University of Maryland)

Pass through of energy prices to inflation in the euro area: implications for current modelling practices?

Francesco Corsello, Banca d’Italia