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Venue

WebEx

Format

online

Date

Wednesday, September 15, 2021

In cooperation with

There is consensus among the economics profession that r* – the equilibrium rate of interest at which inflation is stable – has strongly declined over past decades – more so in Europe than in the US. While r* in itself is not a policy goal, its currently estimated low level is widely perceived to pose several challenges, including eroding policy space for monetary policy, lower returns for savers and institutional investors as well as banks, and potential negative consequences for resource allocation and productivity. So, what can be done to exit from this “low r* trap”? This workshop explores the interaction of economic policies with r* and policy options to raise r*, against the backdrop of economic trends which may affect the further development of r* going forward.

Scientific Committee
Ernest Gnan (OeNB and SUERF), Robert Holzmann, Kilian Rieder and Maria Teresa Valderrama (OeNB).

Program

Time
Wednesday, 15 September 2021
09:00
Opening and Welcome

Raising r*: Why, how, and if not now, when?

Robert Holzmann, Governor, OeNB presentation
09:15
Macroeconomic policies and r*: Theory and empirics of endogeneity – policy implications
Moderated by Jakob de Haan, University of Groningen I SUERF President

Keynote Lecture: Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?

Claudio Borio, BIS I SUERF Fellow presentation

SUERF Policy Note, No 255 – Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?

Monetary policy and productivity

Maria T. Valderrama, OeNB presentation

Fiscal policies, monetary and fiscal policy interactions and r*

Isabel Vansteenkiste, ECB I SUERF presentation

r*, ELB, and monetary easing effect

Hiroshi Ugai, JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. presentation

10:45
Long-term trends, structural policies and r*: Future scenarios and policy implications
Moderated by Ernest Gnan, OeNB I SUERF

Keynote Lecture: Just a temporary trough? Long-term scenarios for the future development of r*

Charles Goodhart, LSE I SUERF Fellow presentation

Impact of climate change/protection, digitalization and (de)globalization on r*

Cornelia Holthausen, ECB and Javier J. Pérez, Banco de España,

Cornelia Holthausen, ECB (pdf – presentation)
Javier J. Pérez, Banco de España (pdf – presentation)

The circular relationship between productivity growth and real interest rates

Gilbert Cette, Banque de France, AMSE and NEOMA Business School presentation

How to raise productivity post-COVID?

Luiz de Mello, OECD presentation
12:15
End