SUERF-Banca d’Italia-ECB-EIB conference

The use of surveys for monetary and economic policy

Date: 26 April 2023 - 27 April 2023 I hybrid, Rome

Venue: Banca d’ Italia, via Nazionale 91, 00184 Rome, Italy I online via Webex

Over the past years, surveys have gained importance to supplement information from “hard” economic data on various aspects of the economy, and to provide timely insights on the impact from sudden and unexpected developments, such as COVID-19, the energy crisis and the sudden sharp increase in inflation. Surveys cover a broad range of economic actors and sectors, such as households, firms, financial institutions and economic and financial forecasters. Central banks, policy institutions and academia are using insights from such surveys increasingly to inform their appraisal of the state and outlook of the economy as well as possible risks, to study the distributional effects of policies and to inform policy decisions. That said, existing surveys also have many limitations and caveats, and survey methods and research are currently developing very rapidly, given a changing economic environment, with new pressing policy and research questions emerging at a rapid pace. Call fpr Papers (pdf)

Scientific committee: David Loschiavo and Concetta Rondinelli (Banca d’Italia, local organizers), Ernest Gnan (SUERF), Geoff Kenny and Dimitris Georgarakos (ECB), Matteo Gatti and Peter Harasztosi (EIB).

Wednesday, 26 April 2023
14:00	Welcome and Introduction

	Luigi Federico Signorini, Senior Deputy Governor, Banca d’Italia Jakob de Haan, SUERF President I Professor, University of Groningen

14:15	Keynote Lecture

	Heterogeneous spending and saving behaviors: What can we learn from survey experiments? Stefanie Stantcheva, Professor, Harvard University Presentation (pdf)

15:00	Session 1: Monetary Policy

	Chair: Stefano Neri, Banca d’Italia I SUERF Paper: A Diverse Fed Can Reach Underrepresented Groups Michael Weber, University of Chicago I NBER Co-author(s): Francesco D"Acunto, Georgetown University; Andreas Fuster, EPFL Discussant: Luigi Guiso, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance Presentation (pdf) Paper: Fed Sentiment and Expectations: Evidence from Speeches by FOMC Members Greta Meggiorini, University of California, Irvine Co-author(s): Eleonora Granziera, Norges Bank; Vegard H. Larsen, BI Norwegian Business School Discussant: Maria Sole Pagliari, Banque de France Presentation (pdf) Paper: Building Central Bank Credibility: The Role of Forecast Performance Ryan Rholes, University of Oxford Co-author(s): Michael McMahon, University of Oxford Discussant: Laurent Maurin, European Investment Bank Presentation (pdf)

16:45	Coffee Break

17:00	Session 2: Firms

	Chair: Marco Bottone, Banca d’Italia Paper: Why firms lay off workers instead of cutting wages: Evidence from matched firm survey-administrative data Marianna Kudlyak, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco I Hoover Institution Co-author(s): Antoine Bertheau, University of Copenhagen; Birthe Larsen, Copenhagen Business School; Morten Bennedsen, University of Copenhagen Discussant: Annalisa Ferrando, European Central Bank Presentation (pdf) Paper: The effects of the 2021 energy crisis on medium and large industrial firms: evidence from Italy Matteo Alpino, Bank of Italy Co-author(s): Luca Citino, Bank of Italy; Annalisa Frigo, Bank of Italy Discussant: Nils Wehrhöfer, Deutsche Bundesbank Presentation (pdf) Paper: Advanced digital technologies and investment in employee training: Complements or substitutes? Christoph Weiss, European Investment Bank Co-author(s): Giorgio Brunello; University of Padova, Désirée Rückert and Patricia Wruuck; European Investment Bank Discussant: Fabiano Schivardi, LUISS University Presentation (pdf)

18:45	End - Day 1

Thursday, 27 April 2023
09:30	Session 3: Households

	Chair: Tiziano Ropele, Banca d’Italia Paper: How do borrower households adjust in a household foreign currency debt crisis? Győző Gyöngyösi, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE Co-author(s): Judit Rariga; European Central Bank, Emil Verner; MIT Discussant: Andrea Pozzi, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance Presentation (pdf) Paper: Wealth shocks and portfolio choice Tullio Jappelli, Università di Napoli Federico II co-author(s): Geoff Kenny, ECB; Dimitris Georgarakos, ECB and CFS, Dimitris Christelis, University of Glasgow Discussant: Maarten van Rooij, De Nederlandsche Bank Presentation (pdf) Paper: Household expectations and dissent among policymakers Moritz Grebe, Giessen University Co-author(s): Peter Tillmann; Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen Discussant: Klodiana Istrefi, European Central Bank and CEPR Presentation (pdf)

11:15	Coffee Break

11:30	Session 4: Monetary and Macroprudential Policies

	Chair: Elisa Guglielminetti, Banca d’Italia Paper: Cooling the mortgage loan market: The effect of value-based and income-based prudential limits on new mortgage lending Martin Hodula, Czech National Bank Co-author(s): Milan Szabo, Lukáš Pfeifer, Martin Melecký, Czech National Bank Discussant: Aicha Kharazi, University of Exeter Presentation (pdf) Paper: Short and variable lags Vasco M. Carvalho, Universitat Pompeu Fabra Co-author(s): Gergely Buda, Barcelona School of Economics; Giancarlo Corsetti, EUI; João B. Duarte, Nova School of Business and Economics; Stephen Hansen, University College London; Álvaro Ortiz, BBVA; Tomasa Rodrigo, BBVA; José Rodríguez Mora, University of Edinburgh Discussant: Stefano Pica, Bank of Italy

12:40	Lunch

13:40	Session 5: Inequality

	Chair: Giordano Zevi, Banca d’Italia Paper: Inequality and business cycles Florin Bilbiie, University of Cambridge Co-author(s): Giorgio E. Primiceri, Northwestern University; Andrea Tambalotti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Discussant: José Elías Gallegos Dago, Banco de España Paper: Distributional effects of inflation in the euro area Filippo Pallotti, University College London Co-author(s): Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, Jiri Slacalek, Oreste Tristani (ECB); Giovanni Violante; Princeton University Discussant: Clodomiro F. Ferreira, Banco de España

14:50	Presentation

	The use of private market surveys at the European Investment Fund (EIF) Antonia Botsari and Frank Lang, EIF Presentation (pdf)

15:15	Policy Panel

	Chair: Silvia Fabiani, Head of Statistical Analysis Directorate, Banca d’Italia Andrea Brandolini, Deputy Director, General for Economics, Statistics and Research, Banca d’Italia Debora Revoltella, Director of the Economics Department, EIB I SUERF Presentation (pdf) Natacha Valla, Dean, Sciences Po, School of Management and Innovation I SUERF Presentation (pdf) Caroline Willeke, Deputy Director, General Statistics, ECB Presentation (pdf)

17:00	Concluding remarks

	Ernest Gnan, SUERF Secretary General

17:10	End - Day 2

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The use of surveys for monetary and economic policy