Author(s): Stephan Barisitz
Date published: Apr 2016
SUERF Policy Note, Issue No 5
by Stephan Barisitz, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
JEL-codes: E31, E44, E58, F32, G15, G21, G28, P34.
Keywords: Russian balance of payments, banking risks, capital movements, economic sanctions, financial instability, inflation rate, oil price, ruble exchange rate.
The Russian economy is exposed. Wars in Ukraine and Syria are costly. Sliding oil prices and Western sanctions imply falling revenues from exports. Against this background, most observers would expect Russia’s macroeconomic performance to be poor. The author of this SUERF Policy Note has taken a closer look at Russian data. After examining numbers concerning profitability of Russian enterprises, the balance of payments, the Government budget, unemployment and the risk-situation of the banking sector, the author concludes that the economy of Russia is doing surprisingly well. This is obviously a surprise with serious political implications.
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