Victor Degorce & Eric Monnet,
PhD student at the EHESS | Paris School of Economics and EHESS CEPR Research affiliatepresentation
Chair: Maurizio Beretta,
Chairman, UniCredit Foundation
Panel: COVID and savings behaviour: What lessons? Any lasting impact?
Moderator: Arne Holzhausen,
Head of Insurance, Wealth and Trend Research, Allianz SE
Director, Deutsche Bundesbank
In this video, Arne Holzhausen, Allianz SE, Stefan Gerlach, EFG Bank, Geoff Kenny, ECB, Erik Nielsen, UniCredit Group, Jorge Sicilia, BBVA, Kurtulus T. Diamondopoulos, World Gold Council, and Jens Ulbrich, Deutsche Bundesbank, discuss what has been driving savings – and consumption – behavior during the COVID-19 crises, and how savings, consumption and the economic recovery might evolve going forward.
Savings rates (the share of savings in households” disposable income) have doubled in many countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, as a result of the impossibility to consume due to lockdowns and other containment measures, while households” and businesses” income losses were supported by government aid.
Will households, once the lockdowns will be over, reduce their savings rates back to pre-crisis levels? Will they seek to run down their stock of savings accumulated during the pandemic to pre-crisis levels? Will this leed to a spending spree and trigger a vigorous economic recovery? Or are higher savings here to stay, implying a lacklustre economic recovery? And how has portfolio choice been affected by the COVID and the very low risk-free interest rate? Will there be lasting changes, e.g. towards stocks and real estate?
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