SUERF BAFFI Bocconi e-Lecture
Economic Forecasting during and after corona
Sep 10, 2020 
16:00 - 17:30 CET (UTC+01:00)
Date: Thursday, 10 September 2020 − 16:00-17:30 CET
Speakers
Eva Ortega, Senior Adviser and Research Coordinator, Banco de España
Juha Kilponen, Head of Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Martin Schneider, Economist, OeNB
Fabio Canova, Professor of Economics, BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo, Norway
Moderator
Bruno Cabrillac, Deputy Director General Statistics, Economics and International, Banque de France and SUERF Council
The following questions will be addressed:
- What challenges does the corona crisis bring for forecasters?
- How to deal with fundamental uncertainty arising from the pandemic?
- Role of scenarios
- Which types of shocks are we dealing with?
- Implications for estimates of potential output and for inflation forecasting
- How to link epidemiological and economic models?
- Real-time economic indicators
- Role of sectoral analysis
- How to link firms’ financial analysis, banking sector analysis and conjunctural analysis/forecasting?
Webinar Slides (pdf)
Eva Ortega, Senior Adviser and Research Coordinator, Banco de España
Juha Kilponen, Head of Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland
Martin Schneider, Economist, OeNB
Fabio Canova, Professor of Economics, BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo, Norway
Moderator
Bruno Cabrillac, Deputy Director General Statistics, Economics and International, Banque de France and SUERF Council
The following questions will be addressed:
- What challenges does the corona crisis bring for forecasters?
- How to deal with fundamental uncertainty arising from the pandemic?
- Role of scenarios
- Which types of shocks are we dealing with?
- Implications for estimates of potential output and for inflation forecasting
- How to link epidemiological and economic models?
- Real-time economic indicators
- Role of sectoral analysis
- How to link firms’ financial analysis, banking sector analysis and conjunctural analysis/forecasting?
Webinar Slides (pdf)
Bruno Cabrillac: Economic forecasting during the Corona: What the bank of France is doing
Eva Ortega: Economic Forecasting during and after corona
Eva Ortega: Economic Forecasting during and after corona
Juha Kilponen: Forecasting under extreme uncertainty
Fabio Canova: Forecasting after COVID
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Bruno Cabrillac entered the Banque de France in 1984, serving as Economist initially in the Foreign Relations Department, then in the Research and Forecast Department. He was seconded to the Ministry of Finance as Financial Counsellor in Cairo (1989–1992) and Tokyo (1994–1996), having worked as a foreign exchange and bond trader for 18 months prior to that. After heading the African Department (Zone Franc) of the Banque de France from 1997 onward, Bruno Cabrillac was seconded, in April 2001, to the Ministry of Finance to become Trade Commissioner and Banque de France representative in Hong Kong and Macau. In July 2005, he was appointed Financial Counsellor for Africa at the French Ministry of Finance (Directorate General Treasury and Economic Policy). Following his appointment as Director of economics and international European relations at the Banque de France in October 2008, Bruno Cabrillac became Deputy Director General for Economics and International in October 2016. Since January 2019, he has been Deputy Director General for Statistics, Economics and International at the Banque de France. |
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Eva Ortega is Senior Adviser and Research Coordinator at Banco de España, and co-Chair of the group of macroeconomic and econometric modelling of the European System of Central Banks. Previously she led the Modelling Unit of Banco de España, and also served as head of the Macroeconomic Studies division at the Bank of Canada. She holds a PhD in macroeconomics and econometrics from the European University Institute (Florence, Italy). Her work currently focusses on macroeconomic models and on applied macro research, with recent publications on business cycles, monetary policy and the exchange rate pass-through. |
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Juha Kilponen is Head of Monetary Policy and Research Department. Prior to his current position, he was Head of Forecasting at the Bank of Finland. He has also been working as Research Advisor and Economist at the Bank of Finland, Senior Economic Advisor at the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and as an Expert in the European Central Bank. He holds a Doctorate in economics from the European University Institute, and he has published research on monetary policy, fiscal policy and labour markets in different international journals including the International Journal of Central Banking and the Journal of Money Credit and Banking. |
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Fabio Canova is a Professor of Macroeconomics at the Norwegian Business School, Research associate with the Centre for Applied Macroeconomics and Petroleum Studies and the CEPR. He is also program director of the Budapest School of Central Bank Studies, and a member of the scientific committee of the Euro Area Business Cycle network. For the 2019-2020 year he will hold the Santander Excellence Chair at Universidad Carlos III, Madrid. In the past he was the director of Training of the Florence School of Banking and Finance (2015-2018) he held the Pierre Werner chair in Monetary Union at the Robert Schumann Center for Advanced Studies (2012-2014), The ICREA Research Professorship at Universitat Pompeu Fabra (2006-2012) and is has been Professor of Econometrics at the European University Institute (2011-2014) and Chair in Monetary Economics and the University of Bern (2008). |
With friendly support of the Intesa Sanpaolo Chair in Economics of Financial Regulation, Bocconi University.
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