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SUERF workshop in cooperation with ECB, Bank of Finland and Banca d’Italia

Macroeconomic models for monetary policy: State of play and way forward

Thursday, 3 February 2022 (13:30-17:00 CET)

Format - Online via Webex

Economic models play a central role in modern central banks’ assessment of the state of the economy (nowcasting), the forecasting of macroeconomic developments and inflation over the relevant policy horizon (2-3 years), the calibration of the adequate monetary policy stance and instruments, the appraisal of costs, benefits and risks of alternative policy routes (e.g. scenario analysis), as well as the identification of long-term secular economic trends. This workshop offers an overview of central banks’ macroeconomic modelling toolbox in the context of central banks’ monetary policy strategy reviews and with a view to coping with the challenges from climate change, a falling r*, proximity to the effective lower bound on interest rates, and the COVID crisis. The workshop will translate the technical modelling work into a policy-oriented format accessible to economic policy makers, financial practitioners and economists active outside the narrow field of economic modelling and forecasting. The workshop brings together major global institutions active in the field. The aim is to provide orientation over the multitude of evolving workstreams and approaches, to encourage benchmarking and cross-fertilization between institutions, to link interested researchers, and to open avenues for future cooperation.

ECB Strategy Review
Occasional Paper Series: Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement (pdf)

Scientific coordination
Matthieu Darracq Paries, ECB; Ernest Gnan, OeNB and SUERF; Juha Kilponen, Bank of Finland, and Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d’Italia.

Thursday, 3 February 2022
13:30 Opening and welcome

Ernest Gnan, OeNB I SUERF

13:35 Session 1: Evolving role of macroeconomic models in central banks’ monetary policies: Key lessons from recent Strategy Reviews 

Introduction and moderation: Fiorella De Fiore, BIS

Macroeconomic modelling strategies in the Eurosystem
Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d’Italia
Presentation (pdf)Presentation (pdf)

Modeling Expectations for the Fed’s Framework Review
Fabian Winkler, Federal Reserve Board
Presentation (pdf)Presentation (pdf)

Modelling monetary policy – A Swedish perspective
Ulf Söderström, Sveriges Riksbank
Presentation (pdf)Presentation (pdf)

A Review of Canadian Monetary Policy Frameworks – Model Insights and Beyond
Marc-Andre Gosselin, Bank of Canada
Presentation (pdf)Presentation (pdf)

15:00 Session 2: Model development needs – themes and priorities 

Moderation: Matthieu Darracq Paries, ECB

Analytical gaps in the Eurosystem’s monetary policy models
Juha Kilponen, Bank of Finland
Presentation (pdf)Presentation (pdf)

Model development needs – themes and priorities
Jesper Lindé, IMF
Presentation (pdf)Presentation (pdf)

Model development needs – themes and priorities at the Bank of Canada
Yang Zhang, Bank of Canada
Presentation (pdf)Presentation (pdf)

16:00 Session 3: How to improve the use of models for monetary policy? 

Moderation: Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d’Italia

Matthieu Darracq Paries, ECB
Presentation (pdf)Presentation (pdf)

Eleonora Granziera, Norges Bank
Presentation (pdf)Presentation (pdf)

Francesca Monti, King’s College London
Presentation (pdf)Presentation (pdf)

17:00 End

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