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Venue

Webex
14:00-17:00 CET

Format

online

Date

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

In cooperation with

After a decade-long surge in prices, driven by an extended period of exceptionally low (nominal and real) interest rates, by changing housing preferences due to covid and home-working as well as demographics, real estate prices have stopped rising or even started to fall. In real terms (i.e. adjusted for CPI inflation), they have in fact been falling quite substantially over the past two years. Commercial property markets are affected more severely than housing prices so far. Large property developers and owners are showing serious signs of stress, some prominent cases are in default. Owners and financing banks are about to face valuation losses, which may also have to be realized. What is the further outlook for housing markets? What are future driving factors on the demand and the supply side, both in the short and in the longer run? What are risks and side effects from real estate market developments? How will housing affordability evolve? How to square housing needs with environmental constraints and imperatives from climate protections? What measures might or should policy makers take, in the areas of structural, fiscal and macroprudential policies?

This workshop brings together real estate market experts and researchers, central bankers and supervisors to discuss these themes in a compact, practitioner and policy-oriented format. It is a follow up to the SUERF Workshop “Housing Markets in the 2020s: Valuation, drivers, risks and policies – Sep 21, 2022“.

Program

Time
Wednesday, 13 March 2024
14:00
Welcome and Introduction
Ernest Gnan, Secretary General, SUERF
Moderation by Deniz Igan, BIS I Vice President, SUERF
14:05
Session 1: Recent developments, outlook, financial stability risks and macroprudential policies
Jan Hannes Lang and Barbara Jarmulska, ECB
Ryan Banerjee, BIS
Discussant: Prakash Loungani, Johns Hopkins University
Discussant: Nina Biljanovska, IMF
16:00
Session 2: Real estate markets: structural and tax issues and policies
Boris Cournède, Volker Ziemann and Sarah Perret, OECD
Discussant: John Muellbauer, Nuffield College
17:00
End
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