Thursday, February 3, 2022

In cooperation with

Economic models play a central role in modern central banks’ assessment of the state of the economy (nowcasting), the forecasting of macroeconomic developments and inflation over the relevant policy horizon (2-3 years), the calibration of the adequate monetary policy stance and instruments, the appraisal of costs, benefits and risks of alternative policy routes (e.g. scenario analysis), as well as the identification of long-term secular economic trends. This workshop offers an overview of central banks’ macroeconomic modelling toolbox in the context of central banks’ monetary policy strategy reviews and with a view to coping with the challenges from climate change, a falling r*, proximity to the effective lower bound on interest rates, and the COVID crisis. The workshop will translate the technical modelling work into a policy-oriented format accessible to economic policy makers, financial practitioners and economists active outside the narrow field of economic modelling and forecasting. The workshop brings together major global institutions active in the field. The aim is to provide orientation over the multitude of evolving workstreams and approaches, to encourage benchmarking and cross-fertilization between institutions, to link interested researchers, and to open avenues for future cooperation.

ECB Strategy Review
Occasional Paper Series: Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement (pdf)

Scientific coordination
Matthieu Darracq Paries, ECB; Ernest Gnan, OeNB and SUERF; Juha Kilponen, Bank of Finland, and Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d’Italia.


Thursday, 3 February 2022
Opening and welcome
Ernest Gnan, OeNB I SUERF
Session 1: Evolving role of macroeconomic models in central banks’ monetary policies: Key lessons from recent Strategy Reviews 
Introduction and moderation: Fiorella De Fiore, BIS

Macroeconomic modelling strategies in the Eurosystem

Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d’Italia presentation

Modeling Expectations for the Fed’s Framework Review

Fabian Winkler, Federal Reserve Board presentation

Modelling monetary policy – A Swedish perspective

Ulf Söderström, Sveriges Riksbank presentation

A Review of Canadian Monetary Policy Frameworks – Model Insights and Beyond

Marc-Andre Gosselin, Bank of Canada presentation
Session 2: Model development needs – themes and priorities 
Moderation: Matthieu Darracq Paries, ECB

Analytical gaps in the Eurosystem’s monetary policy models

Juha Kilponen, Bank of Finland presentation

Model development needs – themes and priorities

Jesper Lindé, IMF presentation

Model development needs – themes and priorities at the Bank of Canada

Yang Zhang, Bank of Canada presentation
Session 3: How to improve the use of models for monetary policy? 
Moderation: Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d’Italia
Matthieu Darracq Paries, ECB presentation
Eleonora Granziera, Norges Bank presentation
Francesca Monti, King’s College London presentation