European Stability Mechanism
6a, Circuit de La Foire Internationale
L-1347 Luxembourg
& online via Microsoft Teams
Motivation
Geopolitical volatility and risks are on the rise. These risks can materialize with shocks to key economic variables, such as terms of trade, external or domestic demand, or market confidence, affecting economic growth, borrowing conditions, public revenue and spending, and ultimately public debt. In an increasingly power-driven global landscape, Europe must assume greater responsibility for its own security and strategic interests. Building resilience to shocks, reducing external dependencies, modernising production and investing in defence come on top of existing long-term challenges such climate change and population aging. To address these challenges Europe needs more agile institutions, better coordination in research and innovation, and stronger government support. At the same time, debt levels are already high and borrowing costs well above those seen until before the 2021-22 inflation surges.
Organising committee: Ernest Gnan (SUERF), Rolf Strauch, Giovanni Callegari, Ermal Hitaj, Silvia Calò (ESM)
Watch the highlights of the ESM | SUERF Conference in case you missed it!
Financial repression in the XXIst century
Ricardo Reis, A. W. Phillips Professor of Economics · London School of Economics and SUERF Fellow presentationBalancing structural spending pressures with new geostrategic imperatives
Angela d'Elia, Head of Unit, Sustainability of public finances and public expenditure trends · European Commission presentationThe European defence expansion: Drawing on "Guns and growth: the economic consequences of defense buildups"
Ethan Ilzetzki, Associate Professor · London School of Economics presentationDebt sustainability, fiscal surveillance, and macro-financial risks
Philipp Rother, Head of Fiscal Surveillance Section · European Central Bank (ECB) presentationFiscal Policy at Crossroads: Trade Disruptions and Debt
Era Dabla Norris, Deputy Director, Fiscal Affairs Department · International Monetary Fund (IMF) presentationGlobal trade in uncharted waters: between fragmentation and reconfiguration
Maria Grazia Attinasi, Deputy Head, External Developments Division · European Central Bank (ECB) presentationTrade disruptions and fiscal sustainability
Martin Larch, Head of Secretariat at European Fiscal Board · European Commission presentationUS tariff shocks: Causes and consequences
Robert Stehrer, Scientific Director · Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) presentationSpending on the frontline: The macroeconomic implications of geopolitical upheaval
Daragh Clancy, Central Bank of Ireland presentationCo-author(s): Matija Lozej
Buy Guns or Buy Roses? EU defence spending fiscal multipliers
David Sarasa Flores, BBVA Research presentationCo-author(s): Agustín García Serrador, Camilo Ulloa Ariza
Fiscal Inflation in the Euro Area
Francesco Bianchi, Johns Hopkins University presentationCo-author(s): Giovanni Callegari, Ermal Hitaj, Konstantinos Theodoridis
How Can Europe Pay for Things it Cannot Afford?
Luc Eyraud, International Monetary Fund (IMF) presentationMaking sovereign debt safe and sustainable in the EU
Ramon Marimon, European University Institute (EUI) presentationThe fund, private bond markets and the central bank: EU safe assets and an effective lender of last resort
Adrien Wicht, University of BaselThe Fund vs/and SGP Fiscal Rules: making fiscal rules credible and more efficient
Luca Zavalloni, European Stability Mechanism (ESM)Co-author(s): Giovanni Callegari
Discussion Making sovereign debt safe and sustainable in the EU
Pedro Teles, Católica-Lisbon School of Business and Economics presentation