35th SUERF Colloquium and 49th OeNB Economic Conference

The Return of Inflation

Conference report

Venue
The event is planned both online via Webex and onsite with limited attendance by invitation only at the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna, Kassensaal.

Format
Hybrid conference (in person and online)

Date
Monday, 23 May 2022: 13:30-17:45 CET I Dinner Speech 19:00 CET
Tuesday, 24 May 2022: 09:00-17:15 CET I Academic Session 09:00-12:00 CET

COVID-19 regulations
Please find our COVID-19 access regulations here.

After several years of persistently below-target inflation rates, inflation has been increasing markedly since 2021. This uptrend is global, although it varies across regions. Several driving factors have been identified: the vigorous post-pandemic economic recovery; disruptions in global value chains for intermediate and final goods, due in part to short-term pandemic-related factors and in part to a possible reversal of globalization; cycles in commodity and energy production and prices, some of which may also be related to actual or anticipated climate protection measures; and labor market shortages resulting from pandemic-induced structural changes in labor demand and supply. Whether the rising inflation rates we currently observe are a temporary or more permanent phenomenon has been subject of lively debates among policymakers and academia. Among other things, this question hinges on the reaction of expectations and wages to the rise in headline inflation. Central banks worldwide have come under pressure to change their policy stance. The risk of missing a timely response and of inflation becoming entrenched as a result contrasts with concerns of strangling the economic recovery while uncertainties regarding the future course of the pandemic persist. In addition to the great uncertainties originating from the factors mentioned above, at a political economy level the interplay between monetary policy, fiscal policies and financial stability has become more complicated in a post-pandemic world where high debt, high asset market valuations and climate challenges potentially hamper central banks’ perceived anti-inflationary resolve. Many of these challenges have more recently been accentuated by the economic fallout from the Russian invasion in Ukraine and by sanctions imposed on Russia. This conference concentrates on six topics: secular drivers of inflation in the post-pandemic world; the role and measurement of inflation perceptions and expectations; insights from micro price data; the impact of climate change and climate protection on inflation; the role of policymaking and the interaction of monetary policy, fiscal sustainability and financial stability; and current challenges to inflation forecasting.

Program (all times are CEST)

Monday, 23 May 2022
12:30	Standing lunch

13:30	Welcome remarks

	Robert Holzmann, Governor, Oesterreichische Nationalbank Opening remarks (pdf) Jakob de Haan, SUERF President I Professor of Political Economy, University of Groningen

13:45	Session 1 - Inflation in the 2020s: secular changes

	Chair: Robert Holzmann, Governor, Oesterreichische Nationalbank The Great Demographic Reversal Manoj Pradhan, Chief Economist, Founder, Talking Heads Macro Ltd Presentation - pdf

14:30	Session 2: Inflation expectations: Role, drivers, whose inflation expectations?

	Chair: Ernest Gnan, Head, Monetary Policy Section, Oesterreichische Nationalbank I SUERF Secretary General The psychology of inflation and money Pascal Blanqué, Chairman, Amundi Institute Presentation - pdf Findings from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey Geoff Kenny, Head of Section, Monetary Policy Research Division, European Central Bank Presentation - pdf Macroeconomic expectations of households and firms Michael Weber, Associate Professor, University of Chicago Presentation - pdf

15:45	Break

16:15	Policy panel: Monetary policy, policy interaction and inflation in a post-pandemic world with severe geopolitical tensions

	Chair: Robert Holzmann, Governor, Oesterreichische Nationalbank Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF Andrew Bailey, Governor, Bank of England Claudio Borio, Head, Monetary and Economic Department, BIS and SUERF Fellow Joachim Nagel, President, Deutsche Bundesbank

17:45	End of panel

18:30	Aperitif and dinner at VIENNABallhaus

19:00	Dinner speech at VIENNABallhaus

	Chair: Robert Holzmann, Governor, Oesterreichische Nationalbank Dinner speech Martin Selmayr, Head of Representation to Austria, European Commission I Professor, University of Saarbrücken

Tuesday, 24 May 2022
09:00	Academic session A: Household and firm inflation perceptions & expectations
	Chair: Fabio Rumler, Oesterreichische Nationalbank Business Cycles when Consumers Learn by Shopping (pdf presentation) Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona School of Economics The pass-through from inflation perceptions to inflation expectations (pdf presentation) Daria Minina, University of Amsterdam Co-author/s: Stefanie J. Huber, University of Amsterdam and Tobias Schmid, Deutsche Bundesbank Heterogeneity in Imperfect Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence from a Novel Survey (pdf presentation) James Moberly, University of Oxford Co-author/s: Alistair Macaulay, University of Oxford Firms’ inflation expectations: new evidence from France (pdf presentation) Frédérique Savignac, Banque de France Co-author/s: Erwan Gautier, Banque de France; Yuriy Gorodnichenko, UC Berkeley; and Olivier Coibion; UT Austin Unit cost expectations and uncertainty: Firms’ perspectives on inflation (pdf presentation) Xuguang Simon Sheng, American University Co-author/s. Brent H. Meyer and Nicholas B. Parker, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Firm level expectations and macroeconomic conditions: Underpinnings and disagreement (pdf presentation) Pierre Siklos, Wilfrid Laurier University Co-author/s: Monique Reid, Stellenbosch University


10:40	Break

10:55	Academic session B: Inflation forecasting & modelling, and the Phillips curve
	Chair: Kilian Rieder, Oesterreichische Nationalbank and SUERF Research Affiliate A neural Phillips curve and a deep output gap (pdf presentation) Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Université du Québec à Montréal Heterogeneous information, subjective model beliefs, and the time-varying transmission of shocks (pdf presentation) Alistair Macaulay, University of Oxford Anchoring long-run inflation expectations in a panel of professional forecasters (pdf presentation) Sebastian Rast, European University Institute Co-author/s: Jonas Fisher and Lenardo Melosi, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Heterogeneous beliefs and the Phillips curve (presentation pdf) Roland Meeks, International Monetary Fond Co-author/s: Francesca Monti, King’s College London Inflation dynamics and forecast: frequency matters Fabio Verona, Bank of Finland Co-author/s: Manuel M. F. Martins, University of Porto


12:15	Standing lunch

13:00	Session 3: Climate change, climate protection and inflation

	Chair: Birgit Niessner, Director, Oesterreichische Nationalbank Blandine Barreau, Coordinator, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency Presentation - pdf Elga Bartsch, Head, Economic and Markets Research, BlackRock Investment Institute and SUERF Christiane Nickel, Head of Division Prices and Costs, European Central Bank Presentation - pdf Luiz de Mello, Director, Policy Studies Branch, Economics Department, OECD Presentation - pdf

14:15	SUERF Marjolin Lecture

	Chair: Clemens Jobst, Professor, Department of Economic and Social History, University of Vienna Inflation and Globalization Harold James, Professor, Princeton University SUERF Marjolin Lecture Speech - pdf Presentation - pdf

15:00	SUERF Marjolin Prize

	Heterogeneous Information, Subjective Model Beliefs, and the Time-Varying Transmission of Shocks SUERF Marjolin Prize Winner 2022: Alistair Macaulay, University of Oxford Paper: Heterogeneous Information, Subjective Model Beliefs, and the Time-Varying Transmission of Shocks Related link: SUERF Policy Brief, No 337 - Does it matter that households disagree about inflation?

15:15	Break

15:45	Session 4: What micro price data teach us about the inflation process

	Chair: Martin Summer, Head, Research Section, Oesterreichische Nationalbank Micro price analysis in the US and Canada Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Senior Research Officer, Bank of Canada Presentation - pdf What micro price data teach us about the inflation process: Webscraping in PRISMA Chiara Osbat, Adviser, European Central Bank Presentation - pdf Analyzing scanner data in PRISMA Fabio Rumler, Lead Economist, Oesterreichische Nationalbank Presentation - pdf What can we learn from 60 years of PCE inflation data? Raphael Schoenle, Associate Professor, Brandeis University Presentation - pdf

17:00	Concluding remarks

	Barbara Kolm, Vice President, Oesterreichische Nationalbank Concluding remarks (pdf)

17:15	End of conference

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The Return of Inflation

Conference report