
35th SUERF Colloquium and 49th OeNB Economic Conference
Venue
The event is planned both online via Webex and onsite with limited attendance by invitation only at the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna, Kassensaal.
Format
Hybrid conference (in person and online)
Date
Monday, 23 May 2022: 13:30-17:45 CET I Dinner Speech 19:00 CET
Tuesday, 24 May 2022: 09:00-17:15 CET I Academic Session 09:00-12:00 CET
COVID-19 regulations
Please find our COVID-19 access regulations here.
After several years of persistently below-target inflation rates, inflation has been increasing markedly since 2021. This uptrend is global, although it varies across regions. Several driving factors have been identified: the vigorous post-pandemic economic recovery; disruptions in global value chains for intermediate and final goods, due in part to short-term pandemic-related factors and in part to a possible reversal of globalization; cycles in commodity and energy production and prices, some of which may also be related to actual or anticipated climate protection measures; and labor market shortages resulting from pandemic-induced structural changes in labor demand and supply. Whether the rising inflation rates we currently observe are a temporary or more permanent phenomenon has been subject of lively debates among policymakers and academia. Among other things, this question hinges on the reaction of expectations and wages to the rise in headline inflation. Central banks worldwide have come under pressure to change their policy stance. The risk of missing a timely response and of inflation becoming entrenched as a result contrasts with concerns of strangling the economic recovery while uncertainties regarding the future course of the pandemic persist. In addition to the great uncertainties originating from the factors mentioned above, at a political economy level the interplay between monetary policy, fiscal policies and financial stability has become more complicated in a post-pandemic world where high debt, high asset market valuations and climate challenges potentially hamper central banks’ perceived anti-inflationary resolve. Many of these challenges have more recently been accentuated by the economic fallout from the Russian invasion in Ukraine and by sanctions imposed on Russia. This conference concentrates on six topics: secular drivers of inflation in the post-pandemic world; the role and measurement of inflation perceptions and expectations; insights from micro price data; the impact of climate change and climate protection on inflation; the role of policymaking and the interaction of monetary policy, fiscal sustainability and financial stability; and current challenges to inflation forecasting.
Program (all times are CEST)
Monday, 23 May 2022 | |
12:30 | Standing lunch |
13:30 | Welcome remarks |
Robert Holzmann, Governor, Oesterreichische Nationalbank Jakob de Haan, SUERF President I Professor of Political Economy, University of Groningen |
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13:45 | Session 1 - Inflation in the 2020s: secular changes |
Chair: Robert Holzmann, Governor, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
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14:30 | Session 2: Inflation expectations: Role, drivers, whose inflation expectations? |
Chair: Ernest Gnan, Head, Monetary Policy Section, Oesterreichische Nationalbank I SUERF Secretary General
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15:45 | Break |
16:15 | Policy panel: Monetary policy, policy interaction and inflation in a post-pandemic world with severe geopolitical tensions |
Chair: Robert Holzmann, Governor, Oesterreichische Nationalbank Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF Andrew Bailey, Governor, Bank of England Claudio Borio, Head, Monetary and Economic Department, BIS and SUERF Fellow Joachim Nagel, President, Deutsche Bundesbank |
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17:45 | End of panel |
18:30 | Aperitif and dinner at VIENNABallhaus |
19:00 | Dinner speech at VIENNABallhaus |
Chair: Robert Holzmann, Governor, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
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Tuesday, 24 May 2022 | |
09:00 | Academic session A: Household and firm inflation perceptions & expectations |
Chair: Fabio Rumler, Oesterreichische Nationalbank The pass-through from inflation perceptions to inflation expectations (pdf presentation) |
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10:40 | Break |
10:55 | Academic session B: Inflation forecasting & modelling, and the Phillips curve |
Chair: Kilian Rieder, Oesterreichische Nationalbank and SUERF Research Affiliate Heterogeneous information, subjective model beliefs, and the time-varying transmission of shocks (pdf presentation) Anchoring long-run inflation expectations in a panel of professional forecasters (pdf presentation) Heterogeneous beliefs and the Phillips curve (presentation pdf) Inflation dynamics and forecast: frequency matters |
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12:15 | Standing lunch |
13:00 | Session 3: Climate change, climate protection and inflation |
Chair: Birgit Niessner, Director, Oesterreichische Nationalbank Blandine Barreau, Coordinator, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency Elga Bartsch, Head, Economic and Markets Research, BlackRock Investment Institute and SUERF Christiane Nickel, Head of Division Prices and Costs, European Central Bank Luiz de Mello, Director, Policy Studies Branch, Economics Department, OECD |
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14:15 | SUERF Marjolin Lecture |
Chair: Clemens Jobst, Professor, Department of Economic and Social History, University of Vienna
SUERF Marjolin Lecture Speech - pdf ![]() |
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15:00 | SUERF Marjolin Prize |
Heterogeneous Information, Subjective Model Beliefs, and the Time-Varying Transmission of Shocks Paper: Heterogeneous Information, Subjective Model Beliefs, and the Time-Varying Transmission of Shocks Related link: SUERF Policy Brief, No 337 - Does it matter that households disagree about inflation? |
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15:15 | Break |
15:45 | Session 4: What micro price data teach us about the inflation process |
Chair: Martin Summer, Head, Research Section, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
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17:00 | Concluding remarks |
Barbara Kolm, Vice President, Oesterreichische Nationalbank ![]() |
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17:15 | End of conference |
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