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SUERF Policy Notes

In September 2015, SUERF launched the SUERF Policy Notes series with focus on current financial, monetary or economic issues, designed for policy makers and financial practitioners, authored by renowned experts.
 


Date publishedSUERFIssueTitleAuthor(s)
Dec 2023Policy BriefNo 757Have (excess) profits been shaping domestic price pressures in Austria?Friedrich Fritzer, Doris Prammer, Lukas Reiss, Martin Schneider
Nov 2023Policy BriefNo 750Easier said than done: Predicting downside risks to house prices in CroatiaTihana Škrinjarić, Maja Sabol
Nov 2023Policy BriefNo 748Monetary policy rules: model uncertainty meets design limitsAlexander Dück, Fabio Verona
Nov 2023Policy BriefNo 747Lessons from 100 inflation shocksAnil Ari, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Victor Mylonas, Lev Ratnovski, Wei Zhao
Nov 2023Policy BriefNo 744Fiscal sources of inflation risk in EMDEs: the role of the external channelRyan Banerjee, Valerie Boctor, Aaron Mehrotra, Fabrizio Zampolli
Nov 2023Policy BriefNo 743Impact assessment of high inflation on Greek public finances. Does the type of inflation matter? Evidence from a highly indebted countrySophia Lazaretou, George Palaiodimos
Nov 2023Policy BriefNo 742Foreign economic policy uncertainty shocks and real activity in the Euro areaFilippo Arigoni, Črt Lenarčič
Nov 2023Policy BriefNo 737Underlying Inflation, Regime Shifts and Asymmetric RisksHervé Le Bihan, Danilo Leiva-León, Matías Pacce
Nov 2023Policy BriefNo 734Macroprudential stance assessment: problems of measurement and literature reviewTihana Škrinjarić
Nov 2023Policy BriefNo 731Monetary policy rules under bounded rationalityMichael Dobrew, Rafael Gerke, Daniel Kienzler, Alexander Schwemmer
Nov 2023Policy BriefNo 730Inflation expectations in CESEE are shaped by the sentiment and experiences of individualsKatharina Allinger, Fabio Rumler
Nov 2023Policy BriefNo 729How and why? Monitoring cement production with satellites and neural networksAlexandre d’Aspremont, Simon Ben Arous, Jean-Charles Bricongne, Benjamin Lietti, Baptiste Meunier
Nov 2023Policy BriefNo 722High Debt Levels Can Impede Monetary PolicyLuis Brandao-Marques, Marco Casiraghi, Gaston Gelos, Olamide Harrison, Gunes Kamber
Nov 2023Policy BriefNo 720Forecasting euro area inflation with machine learning modelsMichele Lenza, Inés Moutachaker, Joan Paredes
Nov 2023Policy BriefNo 717The role of demand and supply factors during a period of high inflation – the case of IrelandThomas Conefrey, Darragh McLaughlin
Oct 2023Policy BriefNo 714What drives inflation? Disentangling demand and supply factorsSandra Eickmeier, Boris Hofmann
Oct 2023Policy BriefNo 712The Term Structure of Inflation Forecasts Disagreement and Monetary Policy TransmissionAlessandro Barbera, Dora Xia, Sonya Zhu
Oct 2023Policy BriefNo 710Energy price shocks and inflation in the euro areaStefano Neri, Fabio Busetti, Cristina Conflitti, Francesco Corsello, Davide Delle Monache, Alex Tagliabracci
Oct 2023Policy BriefNo 700Mind the gaps: Financial Cycles and Output Gap in the euro areaJustine Guillochon, Julien Le Roux
Oct 2023Policy BriefNo 698E-commerce and Price Setting: Evidence from EuropeGeorg Strasser, Elisabeth Wieland, Paweł Macias, Aneta Błażejowska, Karol Szafranek, David Wittekopf
Oct 2023Policy NoteNo 324Money and inflationIsabel Schnabel
Sep 2023Policy NoteNo 322Central Banks: Firefighters or Pyromaniacs in Recent Crises?Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn
Sep 2023Policy BriefNo 690Gauging price pressures in the euro area with the inflation compassNuno Lourenço, João Quelhas, António Rua
Sep 2023Policy BriefNo 686The long-term effects of inflation on inflation expectationsFabio Braggion, Felix von Meyerinck, Nic Schaub, Michael Weber
Sep 2023Policy BriefNo 683Can monetary policy ignore financial stability risks?Sulkhan Chavleishvili, Manfred Kremer, Frederik Lund-Thomsen
Sep 2023Policy BriefNo 679The current Polycrisis versus the Global Financial CrisisMarc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn
Sep 2023Policy BriefNo 678Nowcasting World Trade with Machine Learning: a Three-Step ApproachMenzie Chinn, Baptiste Meunier, Sebastian Stumpner
Sep 2023Policy BriefNo 677How does changing pricing behavior affect inflation? Evidence from Euro Area microdataJuhana Hukkinen, Matti Viren
Sep 2023Policy BriefNo 675How producer price changes transmit into final goods pricesEdvin Ahlander, Mikael Carlsson, Mathias Klein
Aug 2023Policy BriefNo 672Explaining the endurance of price level differences in the euro areaHuw Dixon, Pavlos Petroulas, Theodora Kosma
Aug 2023Policy BriefNo 671An Analysis of Business Cycle Fluctuations in Slovenia and the Euro AreaJan Radovan
Aug 2023Policy BriefNo 668Fifty Shades of QE RevisitedMartin Weale, Tomasz Wieladek
Aug 2023Policy BriefNo 663The drivers of market-based inflation expectations in the euro area and in the USChristian Höynck, Luca Rossi
Aug 2023Policy BriefNo 651Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks on real oil pricesSzilard Benk, Max Gillman
Jul 2023Policy BriefNo 645How to measure inflation volatility. A Note.Alfredo Garcia-Hiernaux, Maria T. Gonzalez-Perez, David E. Guerrero
Jul 2023Policy BriefNo 643Consumer Savings Behaviour at Low and Negative Interest RatesMarco Felici, Geoff Kenny, Roberta Friz
Jul 2023Policy BriefNo 642House price expectations and inflation expectations: Evidence from survey dataVedanta Dhamija, Ricardo Nunes, Roshni Tara
Jul 2023Policy BriefNo 639Money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro areaMartin Mandler, Michael Scharnagl
Jul 2023Policy BriefNo 635No time to slack: nowcasting employment in the euro areaMarta Bańbura, Irina Belousova, Katalin Bodnár, Máté Barnabás Tóth
Jul 2023Policy NoteNo 314Has monetary policy changed for good? A retrospective on recent history and implications going forwardStefano Neri
Jul 2023Policy BriefNo 6342020s vs 1970s: echoes, not a replayMonica Defend, Vincent Mortier
Jul 2023Policy BriefNo 631Impact of fiscal measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on small-open economies: lessons from SloveniaFilippo Arigoni, Miha Breznikar, Črt Lenarčič, Matjaž Maletič
Jul 2023Policy BriefNo 626Macroprudential policy in the high inflation environment: Sailing uncharted watersCarsten Detken, Ján Klacso, Reiner Martin
Jun 2023Policy BriefNo 616News or Animal Spirits? Consumer Confidence and Economic Activity: ReduxSangyup Choi, Jaehun Jeong, Dohyeon Park, Donghoon Yoo
Jun 2023Policy BriefNo 615Should inequality factor into central banks’ decisions?Niels-Jakob H. Hansen, Alessandro Lin, Rui C. Mano
Jun 2023Policy BriefNo 603Alexandre Lamfalussy and the origins of instability in capitalist economiesIvo Maes
Jun 2023Policy NoteNo 313Monetary and financial stability – can they be separated?Isabel Schnabel
May 2023Policy BriefNo 598Do hawks sit on stronger branches? Central banks’ equity and policy reactionsMarcel Barmeier, André Casalis
May 2023Policy BriefNo 593How often and how much do food prices change during periods of high inflation – an analysis of online prices in AustriaChristian Beer, Robert Ferstl, Bernhard Graf, Fabio Rumler
May 2023Policy BriefNo 589The environmental goods and services sector is the keystone of net zero: Let’s subsidize it!Eric Jondeau, Grégory Levieuge, Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, Gauthier Vermandel
May 2023Policy BriefNo 584Euro Area inflation differentials: the role of fiscal policies revisitedCristina Checherita-Westphal, Nadine Leiner-Killinger, Teresa Schildmann
May 2023Policy BriefNo 582Critical metals for the low-carbon transition: macro-financial issuesStéphane Dees, Simon Dikau, Hugh Miller, Romain Svartzman
May 2023Policy BriefNo 581On the Macroeconomic Effects of Reinvestments in Asset Purchase ProgrammesRafael Gerke, Daniel Kienzler, Alexander Scheer
May 2023Policy NoteNo 310Monetary and fiscal policies as anchors of trust and stabilityAgustín Carstens
Apr 2023Policy BriefNo 576Monetary policy and the drifting natural rate of interestSandra Daudignon, Oreste Tristani
Apr 2023Policy BriefNo 575Labour market differences and monetary policy in the euro areaSandra Gomes, Pascal Jacquinot, Matija Lozej
Apr 2023Policy BriefNo 574The effect of extreme temperatures on the US economy and on the conduct of monetary policyFilippo Natoli
Apr 2023Policy BriefNo 571Has the euro changeover really caused extra inflation in Croatia?Matteo Falagiarda, Christine Gartner, Ivan Mužić, Andreja Pufnik
Apr 2023Policy BriefNo 567Catching the green-tech train: technology and climate change mitigationClaire Alestra, Gilbert Cette, Valérie Chouard, Rémy Lecat
Apr 2023Policy BriefNo 565Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply ConstraintsAlmut Balleer, Marvin Noeller
Apr 2023Policy NoteNo 308Supply mattersAndrew Bailey
Apr 2023Policy BriefNo 559Will the Green Transition Be Inflationary? Expectations MatterAlessandro Ferrari, Valerio Nispi Landi
Mar 2023Policy BriefNo 550Lower for longer under Endogenous Technology GrowthMichaela Elfsbacka Schmöller, Martin Spitzer
Mar 2023Policy BriefNo 548The Euro Area Great Inflation SurgeGuido Ascari, Paolo Bonomolo, Marco Hoeberichts, Riccardo Trezzi
Mar 2023Policy BriefNo 547Conditional density forecasting: a tempered importance sampling approachCarlos Montes-Galdón, Joan Paredes, Elias Wolf
Mar 2023Policy BriefNo 544Using machine learning to measure financial risk in ChinaAlexander Al-Haschimi, Apostolos Apostolou, Andres Azqueta-Gavaldon, Martino Ricci
Mar 2023Policy BriefNo 543How shocks to Chinese supply chains affect US and euro area manufacturingMakram Khalil, Marc-Daniel Weber
Mar 2023Policy NoteNo 304Should central banks raise inflation targets?Ernest Gnan, Robert Holzmann
Mar 2023Policy BriefNo 537Navigating the housing channel of monetary policy across euro area regionsNiccolò Battistini, Matteo Falagiarda, Angelina Hackmann, Moreno Roma
Mar 2023Policy BriefNo 536Disruptions in global supply chains drive inflation in the euro areaDavid Finck, Peter Tillmann
Feb 2023Policy BriefNo 530Deep contractions cause economic scars that never healDavid Aikman, Mathias Drehmann, Mikael Juselius, Xiaochuan Xing
Feb 2023Policy BriefNo 524Highly Dispersed inflation rates challenge the ECB’s monetary policy strategyThomas Url
Feb 2023Policy BriefNo 521Can Machine Learning Methods Help Nowcast GDP?Andreas Pick, Jasper de Winter
Jan 2023Policy BriefNo 512Price Setting Before and During the Pandemic: Evidence from Swiss Consumer PricesBarbara Rudolf, Pascal Seiler
Jan 2023Policy BriefNo 504Introduction of the composite indicator of cyclical systemic risk in Croatia: possibilities and limitationsTihana Škrinjarić
Jan 2023Policy NoteNo 296Finding the right mix: monetary-fiscal interaction at times of high inflationIsabel Schnabel
Jan 2023Policy BriefNo 498Get your bearings: guidelines for newspaper based economic indicatorsErik Andres-Escayola, Corinna Ghirelli, Luis Molina, Javier Perez, Elena Vidal
Dec 2022Policy BriefNo 491Risk sharing and monetary policy transmissionSebastian Hauptmeier, Fédéric Holm-Hadulla, Théodore Renault
Dec 2022Policy BriefNo 484Monetary and macroprudential policy effectiveness and spilloversLuc Laeven, Angela Maddaloni, Caterina Mendicino
Dec 2022Policy BriefNo 482Shipping freight rates and inflation in the Euro AreaNektarios A. Michail, Konstantinos D. Melas, Lena T. Cleanthous
Nov 2022Policy BriefNo 479Strategic behaviours and the policy response to commodity price shocksMassimo Ferrari Minesso, Maria Sole Pagliari
Nov 2022Policy BriefNo 470What micro price data teach us about the inflation process: web-scraping in PRISMAChiara Osbat
Nov 2022Policy BriefNo 468The reform of the EU fiscal framework: an enhanced surveillance role for independent fiscal councils?Christos Chrysanthakopoulos, Athanasios Tagkalakis
Oct 2022Policy BriefNo 454Augmented credit-to-GDP gap as a more reliable indicator for macroprudential policy decision-makingTihana Škrinjarić
Oct 2022Policy BriefNo 452Are governments inflating their economic forecasts ahead of elections?Davide Cipullo, André Reslow
Oct 2022Policy BriefNo 445Fiscal deficits and inflation risks: the role of fiscal and monetary policy regimesRyan Banerjee, Valerie Boctor, Aaron Mehrotra, Fabrizio Zampolli
Oct 2022Policy BriefNo 434Growth Expectations and the Dynamics of EntryEnisse Kharroubi
Sep 2022Policy BriefNo 431Consumer Inflation Expectations and Regional Price ChangesTomasz Łyziak, Michael Pedersen, Ewa Stanisławska
Sep 2022Policy NoteNo 289Monetary policy in the euro area: the next phasePhilip R. Lane
Sep 2022Policy BriefNo 419Was globalization just a little thing in the process of inflation? Juhana Hukkinen, Matti Viren
Sep 2022Policy NoteNo 287Monetary policy and the Great VolatilityIsabel Schnabel
Sep 2022Policy BriefNo 411Subjective Expectations and UncertaintyAndrzej Kocięcki, Tomasz Łyziak, Ewa Stanisławska
Aug 2022Policy BriefNo 403What Can We Learn from 60 Years of PCE Inflation Data?Raphael Schoenle, Dominic Smith
Aug 2022Policy BriefNo 399The effects of internationally coordinated carbon pricing on the economy and welfareAnne Ernst, Natascha Hinterlang, Alexander Mahle, Nikolai Stähler
Aug 2022Policy BriefNo 397Unbalanced macroeconomic risks over the business cycleMartin Iseringhausen, Ivan Petrella, Konstantinos Theodoridis
Aug 2022Policy BriefNo 393Stagflation in the 1970s: lessons for the current situationAlmira Enders, Sebastian Giesen, Dominic Quint
Aug 2022Policy BriefNo 392Consumption-led expansions lead to lower growthMatti Viren
Aug 2022Policy BriefNo 391Why is Swiss inflation low?GianLuigi Mandruzzato
Aug 2022Policy BriefNo 390Dissent in the ECB’s Governing Council Increases Households’ Inflation UncertaintyMoritz Grebe, Peter Tillmann
Jul 2022Policy BriefNo 382What Should the Inflation Target Be? Views from 600 EconomistsGene Ambrocio, Andrea Ferrero, Esa Jokivuolle, Kim Ristolainen
Jul 2022Policy BriefNo 376Climate change and inflation in the euro areaChristiane Nickel
Jul 2022Policy BriefNo 370Too little too late: ECB’s normalisation path was model- rather than data-drivenDaniel Gros, Farzaneh Shamsfakhr
Jul 2022Policy BriefNo 368Inflation Expectations and Climate ConcernChristoph Meinerding, Andrea Poinelli, Yves Schüler
Jul 2022Policy BriefNo 366Firm-level expectations and macroeconomic conditions: underpinnings and disagreementMonique Reid, Pierre Siklos
Jul 2022Policy BriefNo 365Subjective inflation expectations of households and firmsMichael Weber
Jun 2022Policy BriefNo 359Scarring effects of major economic downturns: The role of fiscal policy and government investmentMartin Larch, Peter Claeys, Wouter van der Wielen
May 2022Policy BriefNo 337Does it matter that households disagree about inflation?Alistair Macaulay
May 2022Policy BriefNo 335Macroeconomic Implications and Differences of Oil and Gas Price ShocksThomas Zörner, Nico Petz
Apr 2022Policy BriefNo 323Is Super-Active Fiscal Policy Desirable?Roberto M. Billi, Carl E. Walsh
Apr 2022Policy NoteNo 274Stylised facts on debt and financial crisisPedro Duarte Neves
Apr 2022Policy BriefNo 319Time for a circular business cycle clockNuno Lourenço, António Rua
Apr 2022Policy BriefNo 316Robert Triffin and the search for Asian Monetary UnionIvo Maes, Ilaria Pasotti
Apr 2022Policy NoteNo 273The return of inflationAgustín Carstens
Mar 2022Policy BriefNo 307On the Welfare Effects of Using Energy and Emissions Taxes to Finance a Labour Tax Reduction in a Multi-sector DSGE ModelNatascha Hinterlang, Anika Martin, Oke Röhe, Nikolai Stähler, Johannes Strobel
Mar 2022Policy NoteNo 270Will the supply-driven oil price shock unanchor inflation expectations?Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, Justin Weidner, Amy Yang
Mar 2022Policy BriefNo 285Why the impact of the health crisis in 2020 was uneven across the euro area economies?Ángel Luis Gómez, Ana del Río
Feb 2022Policy BriefNo 272Global models for a global pandemic: the impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economiesPablo Garcia, Pascal Jacquinot, Črt Lenarčič, Matija Lozej, Kostas Mavromatis
Feb 2022Policy BriefNo 271Including inflation expectations helps to improve inflation forecasts of econometric modelsMarta Bańbura, Danilo Leiva-León, Jan-Oliver Menz
Jan 2022Policy BriefNo 262Choosing the European fiscal ruleGinters Bušs, Patrick Grüning, Oļegs Tkačevs
Dec 2021Policy BriefNo 243The Macroeconomic Impact of Euro Area Labor Market ReformsGerhard Rünstler
Oct 2021Policy BriefNo 208Human Frictions in the Transmission of Economic PolicyFrancesco D’Acunto, Daniel Hoang, Maritta Paloviita, Michael Weber
Oct 2021Policy BriefNo 192Optimal Robust Monetary Policy with Parameters and Output Gap UncertaintyAdriana Grasso, Guido Traficante
Sep 2021Policy BriefNo 189How do real and monetary integrations affect inflation dynamics in Turkey?Hülya Saygılı
Sep 2021Policy NoteNo 254Fiscal-Monetary Crosswinds in the Euro AreaLucrezia Reichlin, Giovanni Ricco, Matthieu Tarbé
Sep 2021Policy NoteNo 252Forging the Future of Monetary Union – taking stock and looking forwardMarkus Rodlauer, Rolf Strauch
Aug 2021Policy BriefNo 162The Natural Interest Rate in ChinaSUN Guofeng, Daniel M Rees
Aug 2021Policy BriefNo 143The dynamics of macroeconomic downside riskBy Davide Delle Monache, Andrea De Polis and Ivan Petrella
Jul 2021Policy BriefNo 141Some warning signals about average inflation targetingSeppo Honkapohja, Nigel McClung
Jul 2021Policy BriefNo 136What does “below, but close to, two per cent” mean? Assessing the ECB’s reaction function with real time dataMaritta Paloviita, Markus Haavio, Pirkka Jalasjoki, Juha Kilponen
Jun 2021Policy BriefNo 105Monetary policy space and monetary policy strategies for the euro areaMarkus Haavio, Olli-Matti Laine
Jun 2021Policy NoteNo 244External Vulnerabilities and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Emerging MarketsAbdullah Kazdal, Muhammed Hasan Yılmaz
May 2021Policy BriefNo 98Detecting turning point in the Danish economy in real time – nowcasting in Danmarks Nationalbank during the covid-19 crisisJesper Pedersen
May 2021Policy BriefNo 86The Bewildering Effects of COVID-19 and Other Recessions on Forecast Accuracy MeasurementsBoriss Siliverstovs
Apr 2021Policy NoteNo 232The Macroeconomics of Covid-19 LeverageThéophile Jégard, Simon Ray
Feb 2021Policy BriefNo 43Nowcasting world GDP growth with high-frequency dataCaroline Jardet, Baptiste Meunier
Dec 2020Policy NoteNo 211Preparing for a higher inflation regimeElga Bartsch, Jean Boivin, Philipp Hildebrand
Nov 2020Policy NoteNo 207Surge in corporate insolvencies hitting German banksJan Schildbach
Oct 2020Policy NoteNo 199Macroeconomic stabilisation when nominal interest rates are constrained: A role for household inflation expectations?Geoff Kenny, Ioana Duca-Radu, Andreas Reuter
Oct 2020Policy NoteNo 197The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation RevivalC.A.E. Goodhart, Manoj Pradhan
May 2020Policy NoteNo 170International inflation co-movementsPhilip R. Lane
May 2020Policy NoteNo 164Can we compare the COVID-19 and 2008 crises?Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn
May 2020Policy NoteNo 162How large is the coronavirus macro shock? Putting the near-term record-breaking shock in the long-term contextElga Bartsch, Jean Boivin, Philipp Hildebrand
May 2020Policy NoteNo 161Shh, don’t say it! ECB Helicopter Money: Economics and PoliticsDonato Masciandaro
Mar 2020Policy NoteNo 142Are Standard Macro and Credit Policies Enough to Deal with the Economic Fallout from a Global Pandemic? A Proposal for a Negative SME TaxThomas Drechsel, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Jan 2020Policy NoteNo 121The quest for policy scope: Implications for monetary policy strategiesKlaas Knot
Dec 2019Policy NoteNo 119Central bank independence and inflationRyszard Kokoszczyński, Joanna Mackiewicz-Łyziak
Nov 2019Policy NoteNo 117Euro Area Fiscal Policy: The Factual, the Possible and the SurprisingDaniele Antonucci
Nov 2019Policy NoteNo 112Inflation In The Eurozone Is Dead. Long Live (The Right Kind Of) InflationSylvain Broyer
May 2019Policy NoteNo 71Rethinking the Trade-offs for Monetary Policy in an Era of GlobalizationEnrique Martínez-García
May 2019Policy NoteNo 69The post-crisis Phillips Curve and its policy implications: cumulative wage gap matters for inflationLiviu Voinea
Mar 2019Policy NoteNo 59New Frontiers in the Euro Debate in IcelandThorsteinn Thorgeirsson
Jan 2019Policy NoteNo 53The output cost of the global financial crisis: A reappraisal after ten yearsDavid Turner, Patrice Ollivaud
May 2018Policy NoteNo 33Populism and Central Bank IndependenceDonato Masciandaro, Francesco Passarelli
Dec 2016Policy NoteNo 9Two turbulent centuries: Lessons from Austria’s monetary policy, 1816-2016Ernest Gnan, Clemens Jobst
Apr 2016Policy NoteNo 5Some seeming paradoxes or interesting points of Russia’s economy and banking sectorStephan Barisitz
Feb 2016Policy NoteNo 4Gender diversity and monetary policyDonato Masciandaro, Paola Profeta, Davide Romelli
Sep 2015Policy NoteNo 1What is money and who says so?Peter R. Fisher

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