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SUERF Policy Notes

In September 2015, SUERF launched the SUERF Policy Notes series with focus on current financial, monetary or economic issues, designed for policy makers and financial practitioners, authored by renowned experts.
 


Date publishedSUERFIssueTitleAuthor(s)
Mar 2023Policy BriefNo 544Using machine learning to measure financial risk in ChinaAlexander Al-Haschimi, Apostolos Apostolou, Andres Azqueta-Gavaldon, Martino Ricci
Feb 2023Policy BriefNo 521Can Machine Learning Methods Help Nowcast GDP?Andreas Pick, Jasper de Winter
Feb 2023Policy BriefNo 517Stock Return Predictability: Comparing Macro- and Micro-ApproachesArthur Stalla-Bourdillon
Feb 2023Policy BriefNo 516A scientific illusion in risk management?José María Roldán
Jan 2023Policy BriefNo 502Latent Fragility: Conditioning Banks’ Joint Probability of Default on the Financial CyclePaul Bochmann, Paul Hiebert, Yves Schüler, Miguel Segoviano
Dec 2022Policy BriefNo 497European Small Business Finance Outlook: SMEs in between crisesHelmut Kraemer-Eis, Antonia Botsari, Salome Gvetadze, Frank Lang, Wouter Torfs
Dec 2022Policy BriefNo 493Financial exposure and bank mergers - Micro and macro evidence from the EULaura Lebastard
Dec 2022Policy BriefNo 489The impact of portfolio-based green monetary policy Raphael Abiry, Marien Ferdinandusse, Alexander Ludwig, Carolin Nerlich
Nov 2022Policy BriefNo 479Strategic behaviours and the policy response to commodity price shocksMassimo Ferrari Minesso, Maria Sole Pagliari
Nov 2022Policy BriefNo 463Country Characteristics and Institutions as Significant Factor in Global Value Chain IntegrationMojca Lindič
Oct 2022Policy BriefNo 436The double materiality of climate physical and transition risks in the euro areaRegis Gourdel, Irene Monasterolo, Nepo Dunz, Andrea Mazzocchetti, Laura Parisi
Sep 2022Policy BriefNo 419Was globalization just a little thing in the process of inflation? Juhana Hukkinen, Matti Viren
Aug 2022Policy NoteNo 286The optimal quantity of CBDC in the euro areaLorenzo Burlon, Carlos Montes-Galdón, Manuel A. Muñoz, Frank Smets
Aug 2022Policy BriefNo 405Forgetting Approaches to Improve Forecasting: Executive SummaryRobert Hill, Paulo Rodrigues
Aug 2022Policy BriefNo 403What Can We Learn from 60 Years of PCE Inflation Data?Raphael Schoenle, Dominic Smith
Aug 2022Policy BriefNo 399The effects of internationally coordinated carbon pricing on the economy and welfareAnne Ernst, Natascha Hinterlang, Alexander Mahle, Nikolai Stähler
Aug 2022Policy BriefNo 394Flexibility in Asset Purchases: A Structural AnalysisJames Costain, Galo Nuño, Carlos Thomas
Jun 2022Policy BriefNo 361The influence of financial corporations on IMF lending: Has it changed with the global financial crisis?Lena Lee Andresen
Jun 2022Policy BriefNo 356How much is too much? Assessing the non-linear relationship between debt and sovereign creditworthinessSanne Zwart
Jun 2022Policy NoteNo 282Trade and Climate – The Disrupted NexusStefan P. Schleicher
Jun 2022Policy BriefNo 343Cybersecurity and financial stabilityKartik Anand, Chanelle Duley, Prasanna Gai
May 2022Policy BriefNo 335Macroeconomic Implications and Differences of Oil and Gas Price ShocksThomas Zörner, Nico Petz
May 2022Policy BriefNo 334The local presence of global banksIñaki Aldasoro, John Caparusso, Yingyuan Chen
May 2022Policy BriefNo 333The effect of introducing a Loan-to-Value limit on homeownershipCindy Biesenbeek, Mauro Mastrogiacomo, Rob Alessie, Jakob de Haan
May 2022Policy BriefNo 326The impact of QE on sovereign riskDirk Broeders, Leo de Haan, Jan Willem van den End
Apr 2022Policy BriefNo 320Global Banking, Regulatory Spillovers, and the Benefits of Macroprudential Policy CoordinationPierre-Richard Agénor, Timothy P Jackson, Luiz A Pereira da Silva
Apr 2022Policy BriefNo 318How do carbon prices spillover along global production networks?Ivan Frankovic
Mar 2022Policy BriefNo 301Is the ECB applying lessons from the past?Anselm Küsters
Mar 2022Policy BriefNo 299When domestic and foreign QE overlapPaola Di Casola, Pär Stockhammar
Mar 2022Policy BriefNo 297Central banks’ in-house credit assessment systems – supporting the Eurosystem’s response to the pandemic and its climate change action planAviram Levy, Florian Resch, Anna Maria Rossi, Stephan Sauer
Mar 2022Policy BriefNo 292The role of systemic risk spillovers in the transmission of Euro Area monetary policyAlexandros Skouralis
Mar 2022Policy NoteNo 268Crisis-tested Europe – Solidarity with Ukraine spurs European identityHeinz Handler
Feb 2022Policy BriefNo 280Are complex banking groups riskier?Isabel Argimón, María Rodríguez-Moreno
Feb 2022Policy BriefNo 272Global models for a global pandemic: the impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economiesPablo Garcia, Pascal Jacquinot, Črt Lenarčič, Matija Lozej, Kostas Mavromatis
Feb 2022Policy BriefNo 271Including inflation expectations helps to improve inflation forecasts of econometric modelsMarta Bańbura, Danilo Leiva-León, Jan-Oliver Menz
Jan 2022Policy BriefNo 264Why disinflation can be more costly in a small open economy than in a closed economyOleksandr Faryna, Magnus Jonsson, Nadiia Shapovalenko
Dec 2021Policy BriefNo 245How to set Cyclical and Structural capital buffers via Stress tests? A Risk-to-Buffer approachCyril Couaillier, Valerio Scalone
Dec 2021Policy BriefNo 242The Role of Contact Tracing in the Long Pandemic WarLeonardo Melosi, Matthias Rottner
Nov 2021Policy BriefNo 235Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economiesMaria Sole Pagliari
Nov 2021Policy BriefNo 231A Multi-level Network Approach to Spillovers Analysis: An Application to the Maltese Domestic Investment Funds SectorFrancesco Meglioli, Stephanie Gauci
Nov 2021Policy BriefNo 226Benefits of internationalisation for acquirers and targets – but unevenly distributedRainer Frey, Stefan Goldbach
Nov 2021Policy BriefNo 225Population aging and the persistence of three key global trendsAndrea Papetti
Nov 2021Policy BriefNo 221External Costs of Freight Transport – Relevance and Implications of Internalisation at the European LevelElisabeth Christen, Bettina Meinhart, Franz Sinabell, Gerhard Streicher
Nov 2021Policy BriefNo 220Consumption and service sector key factors in the COVID-19 trade collapseHeli Simola
Oct 2021Policy BriefNo 201Basel III implementation in the European UnionPablo Hernández de Cos
Oct 2021Policy BriefNo 199The impact of macroprudential policies on capital flows in CESEEMarkus Eller, Niko Hauzenberger, Florian Huber, Helene Schuberth, Lukas Vashold
Oct 2021Policy BriefNo 198Why did the pass-through from labor cost to price inflation decline in the US?Elena Bobeica, Matteo Ciccarelli, Isabel Vansteenkiste
Oct 2021Policy BriefNo 193The effect of Eurosystem asset purchase programmes on euro area sovereign bond yields during the COVID-19 pandemicGeorge Hondroyiannis, Dimitrios Papaoikonomou
Sep 2021Policy BriefNo 189How do real and monetary integrations affect inflation dynamics in Turkey?Hülya Saygılı
Sep 2021Policy BriefNo 181A liquidity risk early warning indicator for Italian banks: a machine learning approachMaria Ludovica Drudi, Stefano Nobili
Sep 2021Policy BriefNo 179The relevance of trade policy: Evidence from the 19th centuryJacopo Timini
Aug 2021Policy BriefNo 156More aware societies suffered less from Covid-19Alejandro Buesa, Javier J. Pérez, Daniel Santabárbara
Aug 2021Policy BriefNo 151No country is an island: International cooperation and climate changeMassimo Ferrari, Maria Sole Pagliari
Jul 2021Policy BriefNo 138Three questions on the outlook for bankingCarolyn Rogers
Jul 2021Policy BriefNo 129Nearshoring Perspectives after COVID-19: Can Western Balkans Benefit?Branimir Jovanovic, Mahdi Ghodsi
Jul 2021Policy BriefNo 124Global Financial Uncertainty: Does it Matter for the Global Business Cycle?Giovanni Caggiano, Efrem Castelnuovo
Jun 2021Policy BriefNo 111A rising core lifts all basketsBruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton, Michael S Hanson
Jun 2021Policy BriefNo 110Global vulnerabilities to the COVID-19 variant B.1.617.2David Mackie
Jun 2021Policy BriefNo 104The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production NetworksCem Çakmaklı, Selva Demiralp, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Sevcan Yeşiltaş, Muhammed A. Yıldırım
Jun 2021Policy NoteNo 244External Vulnerabilities and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Emerging MarketsAbdullah Kazdal, Muhammed Hasan Yılmaz
Jun 2021Policy BriefNo 102Assessing the impact of Basel III: Evidence from macroeconomic modelsOlivier de Bandt, Bora Durdu, Hibiki Ichiue, Yasin Mimir, Jolan Mohimont, Kalin Nikolov, Sigrid Röhrs, Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, Valerio Scalone, Michael Straughan
Jun 2021Policy BriefNo 100Shocks to bank capital as a driver of lending standards to corporates. What can macroprudential policy learn from bank lending surveys?Ewa Wróbel
May 2021Policy BriefNo 98Detecting turning point in the Danish economy in real time – nowcasting in Danmarks Nationalbank during the covid-19 crisisJesper Pedersen
May 2021Policy BriefNo 87Banking regulation and the benefits of international cooperation – views from a banking supervisorJoachim Wuermeling
May 2021Policy NoteNo 236Europe’s growth gap: reconciling Keynes and SchumpeterFrançois Villeroy de Galhau
Apr 2021Policy BriefNo 70The impact of Covid-19 on global value chainsHeli Simola
Mar 2021Policy BriefNo 56On the Origin of Systemic RiskMattia Montagna, Giovanni Covi, Gabriele Torri
Mar 2021Policy BriefNo 54Are lower bank capital requirements an efficient policy tool for supporting credit to SMEs?Michel Dietsch, Henri Fraisse, Mathias Lé, Sandrine Lecarpentier
Feb 2021Policy BriefNo 49Should developed economies manage international capital flows? An empirical and welfare analysisDennis Bonam, Gavin Goy, Emmanuel de Veirman
Feb 2021Policy BriefNo 47Banking Across Borders: Are Chinese Banks Different?Eugenio Cerutti, Catherine Koch, Swapan-Kumar Pradhan
Feb 2021Policy BriefNo 43Nowcasting world GDP growth with high-frequency dataCaroline Jardet, Baptiste Meunier
Jan 2021Policy BriefNo 41Is inflation dead or hibernating?Claudio Borio
Dec 2020Policy NoteNo 211Preparing for a higher inflation regimeElga Bartsch, Jean Boivin, Philipp Hildebrand
Dec 2020Policy NoteNo 210On the risk-adjusted performance of machine learning models in credit default predictionAndres Alonso, Jose Manuel Carbo
Nov 2020Policy NoteNo 208The world economy under Covid-19: Can emerging market economies keep the engine running?Kristel Buysse, Dennis Essers
Oct 2020Policy NoteNo 197The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation RevivalC.A.E. Goodhart, Manoj Pradhan
Sep 2020Policy BriefNo 30Can we expect the economy to rebound rapidly?Stéphane Dupraz
Sep 2020Policy BriefNo 26Global value chains and the challenge of Covid-19Antoine Berthou, Juan Carluccio, Guillaume Gaulier
Sep 2020Policy NoteNo 193Inclusive payments for the post-pandemic worldRaphael Auer, Jon Frost, Thomas Lammer, Tara Rice, Amber Wadsworth
Jul 2020Policy NoteNo 185The Macroeconomic Impact of NPLs in Euro Area CountriesIvan Huljak, Reiner Martin, Diego Moccero, Cosimo Pancaro
Jun 2020Policy NoteNo 178Covalization: Europe on the Rack Between Globalization and Covid - A Historian’s Perspective on the European Union: Europe and GlobalizationHarold James
May 2020Policy NoteNo 171US dollar funding markets during the Covid-19 crisis – the international dimensionEgemen Eren, Andreas Schrimpf, Vladyslav Sushko
May 2020Policy NoteNo 170International inflation co-movementsPhilip R. Lane
May 2020Policy NoteNo 167Services are the next – and fast approaching – frontier of global trade and financial services is a sector leading the wayRobert Koopman
May 2020Policy NoteNo 164Can we compare the COVID-19 and 2008 crises?Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn
Apr 2020Policy BriefNo 2Politics and Economics of Global CurrenciesPaul De Grauwe
Apr 2020Policy NoteNo 156Navigation tools in the semi-normal corona eraAndy Langenkamp
Apr 2020Policy NoteNo 148Reflections on the health and financial crisisJacques de Larosière
Mar 2020Policy NoteNo 140The Paradox of Endogenous Nationalism and the Role of Quantitative EasingMassimo Morelli
Feb 2020Policy NoteNo 133Making sure your bot colleague is less biased than you!Frank De Jonghe
Jan 2020Policy NoteNo 122TCFD: strengthening the foundations of sustainable financeMark Carney
Dec 2019Policy NoteNo 119Central bank independence and inflationRyszard Kokoszczyński, Joanna Mackiewicz-Łyziak
Nov 2019Policy NoteNo 114Central Banking in challenging timesClaudio Borio
Oct 2019Policy NoteNo 108Libra – a view from EuropeHeike Mai
Sep 2019Policy NoteNo 99The euro’s global role: past, present and futureArnaud Mehl
Jun 2019Policy NoteNo 81Bilateral Trade Balances Under FocusFlorence Jaumotte
May 2019Policy NoteNo 71Rethinking the Trade-offs for Monetary Policy in an Era of GlobalizationEnrique Martínez-García
Apr 2019Policy NoteNo 68How to assess the adequacy of capital requirements based on internal models?Susanne Roehrig
Jan 2019Policy NoteNo 53The output cost of the global financial crisis: A reappraisal after ten yearsDavid Turner, Patrice Ollivaud
Dec 2018Policy NoteNo 50Business models in prudential policiesIsabelle Vaillant, Marina Cernov
Dec 2018Policy NoteNo 49Bank business models: time to actRudi Vander Vennet
May 2017Policy NoteNo 12(No) worries about the new shape of international capital flowsMatthieu Bussiére, Julia Schmidt, Natacha Valla

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