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SUERF Policy Notes and SUERF Policy Briefs

SUERF Policy Notes & Briefs offer accessible and concise, high-quality, authoritative and informed analysis on topical issues related to European money and finance. They make research by SUERF Member institutions and academic researchers available to the SUERF network and beyond. SUERF Policy Notes & Briefs are published weekly on the SUERF webpage. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the institution(s) the author(s) is/are affiliated with.

To submit your findings to the SUERF Policy Note and Brief series please contact suerf@oenb.at.

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Date publishedSUERFIssueTitleAuthor(s)
Aug 2022Policy BriefNo 396The pass-through from inflation perceptions to inflation expectationsStefanie J. Huber, Daria Minina, Tobias Schmidt
Aug 2022Policy BriefNo 393Stagflation in the 1970s: lessons for the current situationAlmira Enders, Sebastian Giesen, Dominic Quint
Aug 2022Policy BriefNo 391Why is Swiss inflation low?GianLuigi Mandruzzato
Aug 2022Policy BriefNo 390Dissent in the ECB’s Governing Council Increases Households’ Inflation UncertaintyMoritz Grebe, Peter Tillmann
Jul 2022Policy BriefNo 382What Should the Inflation Target Be? Views from 600 EconomistsGene Ambrocio, Andrea Ferrero, Esa Jokivuolle, Kim Ristolainen
Jul 2022Policy BriefNo 377What lessons can we learn from the heterogeneity in inflation expectations among economic agents?Camille Cornand, Paul Hubert
Jul 2022Policy BriefNo 376Climate change and inflation in the euro areaChristiane Nickel
Jul 2022Policy BriefNo 374When Are “Inflation Expectations” Inflation Expectations? New Evidence From Business SurveysBrent H. Meyer, Xuguang Simon Sheng
Jul 2022Policy BriefNo 373Minibonds and intangiblesGabriele Beccari, Francesco Marchionne, Beniamino Pisicoli
Jul 2022Policy BriefNo 370Too little too late: ECB’s normalisation path was model- rather than data-drivenDaniel Gros, Farzaneh Shamsfakhr
Jul 2022Policy BriefNo 368Inflation Expectations and Climate ConcernChristoph Meinerding, Andrea Poinelli, Yves Schüler
Jun 2022Policy BriefNo 360On the psychology of inflation and its implicationsPascal Blanqué
Jun 2022Policy BriefNo 358Forecasting Inflation in France: an update of the model used at Banque de FranceYoussef Ulgazi, Paul Vertier
Jun 2022Policy BriefNo 351Currency demand at negative interest ratesEdoardo Rainone
Jun 2022Policy BriefNo 347Sectoral exchange rate pass-through in the euro areaChiara Osbat, Yiqiao Sun, Martin Wagner
May 2022Policy BriefNo 337Does it matter that households disagree about inflation?Alistair Macaulay
Apr 2022Policy BriefNo 323Is Super-Active Fiscal Policy Desirable?Roberto M. Billi, Carl E. Walsh
Apr 2022Policy NoteNo 273The return of inflationAgustín Carstens
Apr 2022Policy BriefNo 312Household Uncertainty and InflationGene Ambrocio
Apr 2022Policy BriefNo 311Making Sense of Consumers’ Inflation ExpectationsLovisa Reiche, Aidan Meyler, Christian Gayer
Apr 2022Policy BriefNo 308Investor demand in syndicated bond issuances: stylised factsMartin Hillebrand, Marko Mravlak, Peter Schwendner
Mar 2022Policy BriefNo 304Mind the gap: The widening post-pandemic gender divideJoyce Chang, Amy Ho
Mar 2022Policy NoteNo 270Will the supply-driven oil price shock unanchor inflation expectations?Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, Justin Weidner, Amy Yang
Mar 2022Policy NoteNo 269CBDC and the international position of the euroWim Boonstra
Mar 2022Policy BriefNo 293Tax Race to the Bottom Harms Location Attractiveness of Western EuropeLeonie Fischer, Jost H. Heckemeyer, Christoph Spengel, Daniela Steinbrenner
Feb 2022Policy BriefNo 283Don’t trust the (inflation) processBruce Kasman
Feb 2022Policy BriefNo 277Money and psychology of inflation: an investor viewPascal Blanqué
Feb 2022Policy BriefNo 271Including inflation expectations helps to improve inflation forecasts of econometric modelsMarta Bańbura, Danilo Leiva-León, Jan-Oliver Menz
Jan 2022Policy BriefNo 264Why disinflation can be more costly in a small open economy than in a closed economyOleksandr Faryna, Magnus Jonsson, Nadiia Shapovalenko
Jan 2022Policy BriefNo 263Pitfalls of Inflation Tolerance Ranges Hervé Le Bihan, Magali Marx, Julien Matheron
Jan 2022Policy BriefNo 258Why have interest rates fallen far below the return on capital?Magali Marx, Benoît Mojon, François R. Velde
Jan 2022Policy BriefNo 257Why do households save?Sami Oinonen, Matti Viren
Jan 2022Policy NoteNo 263Monetary Policy in a World of Radical UncertaintyMervyn King
Dec 2021Policy BriefNo 251Have Bail-in Policies Reduced Too-Big-To-Fail Expectations? Evidence from the European Overnight Interbank MarketEero Tölö, Esa Jokivuolle, Matti Virén
Dec 2021Policy NoteNo 259Crises as a catalyst for change – lessons from the past, challenges for the futureJens Weidmann
Dec 2021Policy BriefNo 236How to steer interest rates in negative territory? An analysis of reserve tiering and interbank market activityLucas Marc Fuhrer, Matthias Jüttner, Jan Wrampelmeyer, Matthias Zwicker
Nov 2021Policy BriefNo 215Monetary policy strategies in the New Normal: A model-based analysis for the euro areaFabio Busetti, Stefano Neri, Alessandro Notarpietro, Massimiliano Pisani
Oct 2021Policy BriefNo 207The Rise in Foreign Currency Bonds: The Role of US Monetary Policy and Capital ControlsPhilippe Bacchetta, Rachel Cordonier, Ouarda Merrouche
Oct 2021Policy BriefNo 204Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: Identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policiesMassimo Rostagno, Carlo Altavilla, Giacomo Carboni, Wolfgang Lemke, Roberto Motto, Arthur Saint Guilhem
Oct 2021Policy BriefNo 203The reform of the EU’s fiscal governance framework in a new macroeconomic environmentMario Alloza, Javier Andrés, Pablo Burriel, Iván Kataryniuk, Javier J. Pérez, Juan Luis Vega
Oct 2021Policy BriefNo 202Revisiting the link between government debt and sovereign interest rates in the euro areaStéphanie Pamies, Nicolas Carnot, Anda Pătărău
Oct 2021Policy BriefNo 198Why did the pass-through from labor cost to price inflation decline in the US?Elena Bobeica, Matteo Ciccarelli, Isabel Vansteenkiste
Oct 2021Policy BriefNo 196Negative interest rates and the erosion of banks’ interest marginsJorien Freriks, Jan Kakes
Oct 2021Policy BriefNo 191Macroeconomic stabilisation in the presence of the effective lower bound: the case of the euro areaGünter Coenen, Carlos Montes-Galdón, Sebastian Schmidt
Sep 2021Policy BriefNo 189How do real and monetary integrations affect inflation dynamics in Turkey?Hülya Saygılı
Sep 2021Policy BriefNo 184Frozen markets: Iceland’s experience with capital controlsFrancis Breedon, Thórarinn G. Pétursson, Paolo Vitale
Sep 2021Policy NoteNo 256Ultra low interest rates from the perspective of a central bankerLars Rohde
Sep 2021Policy NoteNo 255Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?Claudio Borio
Sep 2021Policy NoteNo 253Raising r*: Why, how, and if not now, when?Robert Holzmann, Maria T. Valderrama
Sep 2021Policy NoteNo 252Forging the Future of Monetary Union – taking stock and looking forwardMarkus Rodlauer, Rolf Strauch
Sep 2021Policy BriefNo 174Low-for-ultra-long policy will not be enough for JapanHiroshi Ugai
Sep 2021Policy BriefNo 173An export supply channel of exchange ratesErik Frohm
Sep 2021Policy BriefNo 172Central banks as bank supervisors: how does this double role affect their inflation outcomes?Vasco Gabriel, Ioannis Lazopoulos, Diana Lima
Aug 2021Policy BriefNo 162The Natural Interest Rate in ChinaSUN Guofeng, Daniel M Rees
Aug 2021Policy BriefNo 150Digital euro has potential in the NetherlandsMichiel Bijlsma, Carin van der Cruijsen, Nicole Jonker and Jelmer Reijerink
Aug 2021Policy BriefNo 148The role of information channels and experience for households’ inflation expectationsChristian Conrad, Zeno Enders and Alexander Glas
Jul 2021Policy BriefNo 141Some warning signals about average inflation targetingSeppo Honkapohja, Nigel McClung
Jul 2021Policy BriefNo 136What does “below, but close to, two per cent” mean? Assessing the ECB’s reaction function with real time dataMaritta Paloviita, Markus Haavio, Pirkka Jalasjoki, Juha Kilponen
Jul 2021Policy BriefNo 135Liquidity in the German corporate bond market: has the CSPP made a difference?Kathi Schlepper
Jul 2021Policy BriefNo 133Evidence of a macroeconomic reversal ratePaul Konietschke, Anna Samarina, Irina Stanga, Jan Willem van den End
Jul 2021Policy BriefNo 130How well are consumers’ inflation expectations anchored to the ECB’s inflation aim?Gabriele Galati, Richhild Moessner, Maarten van Rooij
Jul 2021Policy BriefNo 121How climate protection adds to inflationJörg Krämer, Ralph Solveen
Jun 2021Policy BriefNo 119Six ways to bring inflation (expectations) upErnest Gnan
Jun 2021Policy BriefNo 116The euro area sovereign debt markets in the crisis: role and impact on financial stability perspectivesDenis Beau
Jun 2021Policy BriefNo 113The economics of interest rates and population growthJesse Edgerton
Jun 2021Policy BriefNo 111A rising core lifts all basketsBruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton, Michael S Hanson
Jun 2021Policy BriefNo 109Quantifying bias and inaccuracy of upper-level aggregation in Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for Germany and the euro areaBy Thomas Knetsch, Julika Herzberg , Patrick Schwind and Sebastian Weinand
Jun 2021Policy NoteNo 246Integrated policy frameworks: The constraints of policy horizons and adjustment frequenciesClaudio Borio and Piti Disyatat
Jun 2021Policy NoteNo 244External Vulnerabilities and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Emerging MarketsAbdullah Kazdal, Muhammed Hasan Yılmaz
Jun 2021Policy BriefNo 99Stress-testing CESEE borrowers in the light of the COVID-19 pandemicAleksandra Riedl
May 2021Policy NoteNo 242Does the upturn in Eurozone money growth imply 5% inflation?Tim Congdon
May 2021Policy BriefNo 96Real interest rates and demographic developments: the role of population growth and migrationLucas Fuhrer, Nils Herger
May 2021Policy BriefNo 91Low Interest Rates and the Distribution of Household DebtMarina Emiris, François Koulischer
May 2021Policy NoteNo 235Negative Interest Rate Policy – The Experience So FarLuis Brandao Marques, Marco Casiraghi, Gaston Gelos, Gunes Kamber, Roland Meeks
Apr 2021Policy BriefNo 75Europe: the shock of Covid-19 and the fear of accelerated zombificationHélène Baudchon, Louis Boisset, Guillaume Derrien, Kenza Charef
Mar 2021Policy BriefNo 53Who has purchased euro area debt since the start of the health crisis?Olivier Sirello
Feb 2021Policy BriefNo 49Should developed economies manage international capital flows? An empirical and welfare analysisDennis Bonam, Gavin Goy, Emmanuel de Veirman
Jan 2021Policy BriefNo 41Is inflation dead or hibernating?Claudio Borio
Jan 2021Policy NoteNo 218Interest rate-growth differentials on government debt: an empirical investigation for the euro areaCristina Checherita-Westphal and João Domingues Semeano
Dec 2020Policy BriefNo 40Could housing booms undermine productivity growth?Sebastian Doerr
Dec 2020Policy NoteNo 215Consequences for banks’ business from COVID-19 and policy responsesFrancesco Mazzaferro
Dec 2020Policy NoteNo 212Monetary policy effects when interest rates are negativeJoost Bats, Massimo Giuliodori, Aerdt Houben
Dec 2020Policy NoteNo 211Preparing for a higher inflation regimeElga Bartsch, Jean Boivin, Philipp Hildebrand
Nov 2020Policy BriefNo 37In Support of Monetary Policy: Using the Countercyclical Capital Buffer to Avoid a Reversal Interest RateMatthieu Darracq Pariès, Christoffer Kok, Matthias Rottner
Nov 2020Policy NoteNo 209Are equity markets currently overvalued? The role of the time horizon in earnings expectationsRoberto Blanco and Irene Roibás
Nov 2020Policy NoteNo 207Surge in corporate insolvencies hitting German banksJan Schildbach
Oct 2020Policy NoteNo 202Policy revolutionElga Bartsch, Jean Boivin, Stanley Fischer, Philipp Hildebrand
Oct 2020Policy NoteNo 201Central banks’ response to the “tragedy on the horizon”François Villeroy de Galhau
Oct 2020Policy NoteNo 199Macroeconomic stabilisation when nominal interest rates are constrained: A role for household inflation expectations?Geoff Kenny, Ioana Duca-Radu, Andreas Reuter
Oct 2020Policy NoteNo 198The shadow of fiscal dominance: Misconceptions, perceptions and perspectivesIsabel Schnabel
Oct 2020Policy NoteNo 197The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation RevivalC.A.E. Goodhart, Manoj Pradhan
Sep 2020Policy BriefNo 28Limits and pitfalls of QE in emerging marketsDaniel Daianu
Sep 2020Policy BriefNo 25After Coronavirus: Deflation or Inflation?C.A.E. Goodhart
Sep 2020Policy NoteNo 192A rule-based monetary strategy for the European Central Bank: a call for monetary stabilityJuan E. Castañeda
Aug 2020Policy BriefNo 24The big debt surgeRalph Solveen
Aug 2020Policy BriefNo 23Eurozone in times of Covid-19: Debt monetisation by stealthPeter Vanden Houte
Jul 2020Policy NoteNo 183Retail Central Bank Digital Currencies: means of payment vs store of valueSantiago Fernández de Lis, Pablo Urbiola
Jun 2020Policy NoteNo 176Credit Guarantees in the COVID-19 crisis – Relevance and Economic ImpactJulien Brault, Simone Signore
Jun 2020Policy BriefNo 16Assessing the efficacy of COVID-19 tracing regimesDavid Mackie
May 2020Policy NoteNo 170International inflation co-movementsPhilip R. Lane
May 2020Policy NoteNo 162How large is the coronavirus macro shock? Putting the near-term record-breaking shock in the long-term contextElga Bartsch, Jean Boivin, Philipp Hildebrand
Apr 2020Policy BriefNo 4How the economy will recover from the Corona shockJörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner
Apr 2020Policy BriefNo 1Regulation, Corporate Culture and Individual Responsibility in BankingDavid T Llewellyn
Apr 2020Policy NoteNo 149A diverse monetary union creates invisible transfers that justify conditional solidarityEnrico Perotti and Oscar Soons
Mar 2020Policy NoteNo 145A “European Capitalization and Development Fund” (ECDF) to facilitate Europe’s post-corona recoveryErnest Gnan
Mar 2020Policy NoteNo 144Euro Area Economics: Putting the OOH into HICPJacob Nell, Bruna Skarica, Joao Almeida, Markus Guetschow
Mar 2020Policy NoteNo 137R-star decline and monetary hysteresisPhurichai Rungcharoenkitkul
Jan 2020Policy NoteNo 121The quest for policy scope: Implications for monetary policy strategiesKlaas Knot
Dec 2019Policy NoteNo 119Central bank independence and inflationRyszard Kokoszczyński, Joanna Mackiewicz-Łyziak
Dec 2019Policy NoteNo 118Deposit facility rate, bank reserves, and portfolio reallocation incentivesManuel Buchholz, Kirsten Schmidt, Lena Tonzer
Nov 2019Policy NoteNo 117Euro Area Fiscal Policy: The Factual, the Possible and the SurprisingDaniele Antonucci
Nov 2019Policy NoteNo 112Inflation In The Eurozone Is Dead. Long Live (The Right Kind Of) InflationSylvain Broyer
Oct 2019Policy NoteNo 105Dealing with the next downturn: From unconventional monetary policy to unprecedented policy coordination Elga Bartsch, Jean Boivin, Stanley Fischer, Philipp Hildebrand
Sep 2019Policy NoteNo 94Escaping the Trap: Secular Stagnation, Monetary Policy and Financial FragilityMartin Wolf
Aug 2019Policy NoteNo 92Beliefs and Portfolios: New Measurement and FactsStefano Giglio, Matteo Maggiori, Johannes Stroebel, Stephen Utkus
May 2019Policy NoteNo 69The post-crisis Phillips Curve and its policy implications: cumulative wage gap matters for inflationLiviu Voinea
Mar 2019Policy NoteNo 59New Frontiers in the Euro Debate in IcelandThorsteinn Thorgeirsson
Feb 2019Policy NoteNo 58Disintermediation and re-intermediation effects of the CSPPÓscar Arce, Ricardo Gimeno, Sergio Mayordomo
Sep 2018Policy NoteNo 42Preserving regulatory certainty: The review of insurers’ capital requirementsGabriel Bernardino
Mar 2018Policy NoteNo 28Credit conditions and corporate investment in EuropeLaurent Maurin, Rozalia Pal, Philipp-Bastian Brutscher
Feb 2018Policy NoteNo 27Euro area quantitative easing: Large volumes, small impact?Daniel Gros
Oct 2017Policy NoteNo 19Is cash back? Assessing the recent increase in cash demandClemens Jobst, Helmut Stix
Dec 2016Policy NoteNo 9Two turbulent centuries: Lessons from Austria’s monetary policy, 1816-2016Ernest Gnan, Clemens Jobst
Apr 2016Policy NoteNo 5Some seeming paradoxes or interesting points of Russia’s economy and banking sectorStephan Barisitz
Feb 2016Policy NoteNo 4Gender diversity and monetary policyDonato Masciandaro, Paola Profeta, Davide Romelli
Sep 2015Policy NoteNo 1What is money and who says so?Peter R. Fisher

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