Economic and monetary policy under wartime conditions – implications for CESEE
The world is facing a concurrence of crises: the war in Ukraine and the ongoing recovery from COVID-19 on top of the effects of climate change. While differing very much in nature, these crises all have a decisive effect on economic and monetary policy. With our conference, we seek to develop a deeper understanding of how these transformational crises are likely to impact the economies of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) in the short and medium term. Moreover, we aim to offer a glimpse into what a sustained geopolitical fragmentation and economic deglobalization could mean in the long term. Geopolitically, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to re-establish an iron curtain in Europe. Economically, the war affects the outlook ahead as it has upended established trading patterns and started to change the structure of the energy sector. Related supply shortages and sanctions add to sharply accelerating prices in particular in energy and other commodity markets. This may speed up the green transition toward more sustainable and less energy-dependent economies. Furthermore, labor markets are being transformed by migration driven by conflicts and crises in the short term, and they undergo structural changes driven by digitalization and ageing in the long term. Specific issues the conference will address include:
- What are the challenges for monetary policy given high inflation, elevated political uncertainty and locally diverging interest rates?
- How to deal with demographic challenges and the related transformation of CESEE labor markets?
- Will the current energy crisis trigger faster restructuring toward renewable energy sources and alternative suppliers?
Monday, November 21, 2022, 01:00 p.m.–5:45 p.m. (CET)
Tuesday, November 22, 2022, 01:00 p.m.–5:30 p.m. (CET)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna)
and online via Webex