SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum and the Banque de France (BDF) invite researchers to submit papers for the 34th SUERF Colloquium & BDF Symposium, which will take place in Paris on 28-29 March 2019, on the topic of “The Euro Area in an Uncertain World”.
Colloquium motivation - 2019 marks the euro area’s 20th anniversary. In a short period of only two decades the euro area had to cope with the repercussions from the Asian financial crisis and with the challenges posed by the Global Financial Crisis, Great Recession and European sovereign debt crisis. Contrary to the Great Moderation, like in other parts of the world, euro area economic growth fluctuated strongly over the past 20 years. Albeit more moderately, inflation oscillated between zero and 4% during these two decades, while on average at slightly below 2%, it was roughly in line with the ECB’s definition of price stability.
Overall, the euro area withered all these, sometimes dramatic, developments rather well. The ECB responded to the challenges by a fundamental overhaul of its monetary policy tool kit. New European emergency financing instruments were installed und gradually developed further. The euro area’s regulatory approach and supervisory architecture was fundamentally overhauled and to a substantial degree centralised. The ECB was given responsibility for bank supervision in the euro area. Institutions and tools for macroprudential regulation and supervision were installed. The rules governing national fiscal policies were reworked. New procedures for monitoring emerging imabalances were put in place. The euro area economy has responded favorably to these measures, as reflected by a strong recovery of economic growth and employment and, albeit more hesitantly, of inflation.
Yet, many think that despite these reforms and achievements, the euro area’s economic governance is not yet sufficiently developed to ensure that the next crisis or downturn can be addressed with confidence. Additional policy space for monetary and fiscal policies would be limited if a crisis were to hit now. Many also call for additional mechanisms to better support economic convergence among euro area countries, by means of strengthened macroeconomic and crisis management tools and by stronger efforts to strengthen structural adjustment.
In addition, the global political and economic system has been undergoing marked changes in recent year. The political systems in many countries seem to be running out of political space to implement reforms. In some countries, popular support for integration weakens in favor of perceived national – short term - interests. Trade liberalisation is being questioned or even reversed, trade war seems a real threat, and claims of competitive exchange rate devaluations have been made. The actual or expected normalisation of monetary policies is causing strains for debt sustainabilty in emerging but potentially also developed economies. In a medium to longer term perspective, climate change, migration and disruptive technological change add to the overall uncertainty about the future.
This colloquium aims to identify avenues for the euro area to cope with these uncertainties by taking them as triggers to actively embark on reforms, embrace new technologies and pursue cooperation and integration.
We welcome economic and finance papers which fit into the overall theme of the conference, and contributions on the following, non-exhaustive list:
Interested authors are invited to submit their papers by e-mail attachment in pdf format to SUERF at email@example.com by 15 December 2018.